ArticleVirus evolution2022
Global estimates of the fitness advantage of SARS-CoV-2 variant Omicron.
Article in Virus evolution, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
10 citing papers in PubMed.
- Understanding patterns of variant emergence and spread in an ongoing epidemic.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2026Article
- Stealth replication of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron in the nasal epithelium at physiological temperature.Journal of virology · 2026Article
- A data-driven sliding-window pairwise comparative approach for the estimation of transmission fitness of SARS-CoV-2 variants and construction of the evolution fitness landscape.Quantitative biology (Beijing, China) · 2025Article
- Unsupervised detection and fitness estimation of emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants: Application to wastewater samples (ANRS0160).PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- Frequency dynamics predict viral fitness, antigenic relationships and epidemic growth.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2025Article
- Article
- SARS-CoV-2 infections before, during, and after the Omicron wave: a 2-year Indian community cohort study.The Lancet regional health. Southeast Asia · 2024Article
- SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern fitness and adaptation in primary human airway epithelia.Cell reports · 2024Article
- Comparative epidemic expansion of SARS-CoV-2 variants Delta and Omicron in the Brazilian State of Amazonas.Nature communications · 2023Article
- On the Evolutionary Trajectory of SARS-CoV-2: Host Immunity as a Driver of Adaptation in RNA Viruses.Viruses · 2022Review
Corrections and comments
- Update of
Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
Abstract
New variants of SARS-CoV-2 show remarkable heterogeneity in their relative fitness over both time and space. In this paper we extend the tools available for estimating the selection strength for new SARS-CoV-2 variants to a hierarchical, mixed-effects, renewal equation model. This formulation allows us to estimate selection effects at the global level while incorporating both measured and unmeasured heterogeneity among countries. Applying this model to the spread of Omicron in forty countries, we find evidence for very strong but very heterogeneous selection effects. To test whether this heterogeneity is explained by differences in the immune landscape, we considered several measures of vaccination rates and recent population-level infection as covariates, finding moderately strong, statistically significant effects. We also found a significant positive correlation between the selection advantage of Delta and Omicron at the country level, suggesting that other region-specific explanatory variables of fitness differences do exist. Our method is implemented in the Stan programming language, can be run on standard consumer-grade computing resources, and will be straightforward to apply to future variants.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.