ArticleBMC cancer2022
Trends and predictions of lung cancer incidence in Jiangsu Province, China, 2009-2030: a bayesian age-period-cohort modelling study.
Article in BMC cancer, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.
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5 citing papers in PubMed, 11 citations in OpenAlex.
- Bayesian model prediction of colorectal cancer incidence in Jiangsu Province, China, a cancer registry-based study.BMC public health · 2026Article
- Global burden and prediction study of schizophrenia 1990-2030: comparison with China.BMC psychiatry · 2025Article
- Gender-specific outcomes of low-dose computed tomography screening for lung cancer detection: A retrospective study in Chinese never-smoker population.Cancer medicine · 2024Article
- Clinical applications of telemedicine services using a regional telemedicine platform for cancer treatment: a cross-sectional study.BMC cancer · 2024Article
- Long-term trends in Alzheimer's disease and other dementias deaths with high body mass index in China from 1990 to 2019, and projections up to 2042.Archives of public health = Archives belges de sante publique · 2024Article
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7 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
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Abstract
backgroundLung cancer is currently the most frequent cancer in Jiangsu Province, China, and the features of cancer distribution have changed continuously in the last decade. The aim of this study was to analyse the trend of the incidence of lung cancer in Jiangsu from 2009 to 2018 and predict the incidence from 2019 to 2030.
methodsData on lung cancer incidence in Jiangsu from 2009 to 2018 were retrieved from the Jiangsu Cancer Registry. The average annual percentage change (AAPC) was used to quantify the trend of the lung cancer age-standardized rate (ASR) using Joinpoint software. Bayesian age-period-cohort models were used to predict lung cancer incidence up to 2030.
resultsIn Jiangsu, the lung cancer crude rate increased from 45.73 per 100,000 in 2009 to 69.93 per 100,000 in 2018. The lung cancer ASR increased from 29.03 per 100,000 to 34.22 per 100,000 during the same period (AAPC = 2.17%, 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.54%, 2.80%). Between 2019 and 2030, the lung cancer ASR is predicted to decrease slightly to 32.14 per 100,000 (95% highest density interval [HDI], 24.99, 40.22). Meanwhile, the ASR showed a downward trend in males and rural regions while remaining stable in females and urban regions.
conclusionWe predict that the incidence of lung cancer in Jiangsu will decrease in the next 12 years, mainly due to the decrease in males and rural areas. Therefore, future lung cancer prevention and control efforts should be focused on females and urban regions.
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