Evidence map›Paper›PMID 36316657›Full record

ArticleBMC infectious diseases2022

Go To Travel campaign and the geographic spread of COVID-19 in Japan.

Asami Anzai, Sung-Mok Jung, Hiroshi Nishiura

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in BMC infectious diseases, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
5citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

5 citing papers in PubMed.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors.

Asami AnzaiGraduate School of Medicine, Kyoto University, Yoshidakonoecho, Sakyo-Ku, Kyoto, 606-8501, Japan.
Sung-Mok JungGraduate School of Medicine, Kyoto University, Yoshidakonoecho, Sakyo-Ku, Kyoto, 606-8501, Japan.
Hiroshi NishiuraGraduate School of Medicine, Kyoto University, Yoshidakonoecho, Sakyo-Ku, Kyoto, 606-8501, Japan. nishiura.hiroshi.5r@kyoto-u.ac.jp.

Funding

Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency JPMEERF20S11804Japan Agency for Medical Research and Development JP20fk0108140, JP20fk0108535, and JP21fk0108612Japan Society for the Promotion of Science 20J2135800Japan Society for the Promotion of Science 21H03198Japan Society for the Promotion of Science 22J14304Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare 20CA2024, 20HA2007, 21HB1002 and 21HA2016Research Institute of Science and Technology for Society JPMJRS22B4Strategic International Collaborative Research Program JPMJSC20U3 and JPMJSC2105
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundIn 2020, the Japanese government implemented first of two Go To Travel campaigns to promote the tourism sector as well as eating and drinking establishments, especially in remote areas. The present study aimed to explore the relationship between enhanced travel and geographic propagation of COVID-19 across Japan, focusing on the second campaign with nationwide large-scale economic boost in 2020.

methodsWe carried out an interrupted time-series analysis to identify the possible cause-outcome relationship between the Go To Travel campaign and the spread of infection to nonurban areas in Japan. Specifically, we counted the number of prefectures that experienced a weekly incidence of three, five, and seven COVID-19 cases or more per 100,000 population, and we compared the rate of change before and after the campaign.

resultsThree threshold values and three different models identified an increasing number of prefectures above the threshold, indicating that the inter-prefectural spread intensified following the launch of the second Go To Travel campaign from October 1st, 2020. The simplest model that accounted for an increase in the rate of change only provided the best fit. We estimated that 0.24 (95% confidence interval 0.15 to 0.34) additional prefectures newly exceeded five COVID-19 cases per 100,000 population per week during the second campaign.

conclusionsThe enhanced movement resulting from the Go To Travel campaign facilitated spatial spread of COVID-19 from urban to nonurban locations, where health-care capacity may have been limited.

Indexed as

COVID-19Hospital Bed CapacityHumansIncidenceJapanTravelCausal inferenceEconomic campaignMobilitySpatial analysisTime-series dataTourism

Identifiers

PMID36316657
PMCPMC9619015

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.