SynthesisJournal of clinical epidemiology2022
Predicting COVID-19 prognosis in the ICU remained challenging: external validation in a multinational regional cohort.
Synthesis in Journal of clinical epidemiology, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers.
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Who cites it
8 citing papers in PubMed.
- Blood biomarker trajectories in ICU-directed prediction models - A scoping review.The EPMA journal · 2026Review
- The Maastricht Intensive Care COVID Cohort: A Critical Appraisal of the Predefined Research Questions.Critical care explorations · 2025Article
- Boosting the accuracy of existing models by updating and extending: using a multicenter COVID-19 ICU cohort as a proxy.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- An elastic net regression model for predicting the risk of ICU admission and death for hospitalized patients with COVID-19.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- External Validation of Prognostic Models in Critical Care: A Cautionary Tale From COVID-19 Pneumonitis.Critical care explorations · 2024Article
- A Transcriptomic Severity Classifier IMX-SEV-3b to Predict Mortality in Intensive Care Unit Patients with COVID-19: A Prospective Observational Pilot Study.Journal of clinical medicine · 2023Article
- A guide to sharing open healthcare data under the General Data Protection Regulation.Scientific data · 2023Article
- Outcome prediction in hospitalized COVID-19 patients: Comparison of the performance of five severity scores.Frontiers in medicine · 2023Article
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Authors and funding
16 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
objectivesMany prediction models for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have been developed. External validation is mandatory before implementation in the intensive care unit (ICU). We selected and validated prognostic models in the Euregio Intensive Care COVID (EICC) cohort. STUDY DESIGN AND
settingIn this multinational cohort study, routine data from COVID-19 patients admitted to ICUs within the Euregio Meuse-Rhine were collected from March to August 2020. COVID-19 models were selected based on model type, predictors, outcomes, and reporting. Furthermore, general ICU scores were assessed. Discrimination was assessed by area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) and calibration by calibration-in-the-large and calibration plots. A random-effects meta-analysis was used to pool results.
results551 patients were admitted. Mean age was 65.4 ± 11.2 years, 29% were female, and ICU mortality was 36%. Nine out of 238 published models were externally validated. Pooled AUCs were between 0.53 and 0.70 and calibration-in-the-large between -9% and 6%. Calibration plots showed generally poor but, for the 4C Mortality score and Spanish Society of Infectious Diseases and Clinical Microbiology (SEIMC) score, moderate calibration.
conclusionOf the nine prognostic models that were externally validated in the EICC cohort, only two showed reasonable discrimination and moderate calibration. For future pandemics, better models based on routine data are needed to support admission decision-making.
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