Evidence map›Paper›PMID 36308066›Full record

ArticleDiabetic medicine : a journal of the British Diabetic Association2023

Risk of progression from pre-diabetes to type 2 diabetes in a large UK adult cohort.

Michael P Gardner, Jingya Wang, Jonathan M Hazlehurst, Chris Sainsbury, Jacqueline Blissett, Krishnarajah Nirantharakumar, Neil Thomas, Srikanth Bellary

Abstract read
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In one paragraph

Article in Diabetic medicine : a journal of the British Diabetic Association, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 11 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
11citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

11 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Trial
  3. Article
  4. Article
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  6. Article
  7. The Clock is Still Ticking: Tirzepatide and the Myth of Halting the Natural History of Type 2 Diabetes.Diabetes therapy : research, treatment and education of diabetes and related disorders · 2025
    Article
  8. Article
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  11. Risk of progression from pre-diabetes to type 2 diabetes in a large UK adult cohort.Diabetic medicine : a journal of the British Diabetic Association · 2023
    Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors.

Michael P GardnerInstitute for Applied Health Research, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-5226-5324
Jingya WangInstitute for Applied Health Research, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK.
Jonathan M HazlehurstInstitute of Metabolism and Systems Research, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK.
Chris SainsburyInstitute for Applied Health Research, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK.
Jacqueline BlissettSchool of Health and Life Sciences, Aston University, Birmingham, UK.
Krishnarajah NirantharakumarInstitute for Applied Health Research, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK.
Neil ThomasInstitute for Applied Health Research, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK.
Srikanth BellarySchool of Health and Life Sciences, Aston University, Birmingham, UK.

Funding

Type 2 Diabetes in the Youth (T2DMY) projectWest Midlands NIHR Clinical Research Network (CRN)
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

aimsPeople with pre-diabetes are at high risk of progressing to type 2 diabetes. This progression is not well characterised by ethnicity, deprivation and age, which we describe in a large cohort of individuals with pre-diabetes.

methodsA retrospective cohort study with The Health Improvement Network (THIN) database was conducted. Patients aged 18 years and over and diagnosed with pre-diabetes [HbA1c 42 mmol/mol (6.0%) to 48 mmol/mol (6.5%) were included]. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to calculate adjusted hazard rate ratios (aHR) for the risk of progression from pre-diabetes to type 2 diabetes for each of the exposure categories [ethnicity, deprivation (Townsend), age and body mass index (BMI)] separately.

resultsOf the baseline population with pre-diabetes (n = 397,853), South Asian (aHR 1.31; 95% CI 1.26-1.37) or Mixed-Race individuals (aHR 1.22; 95% CI 1.11-1.33) had an increased risk of progression to type 2 diabetes compared with those of white European ethnicity. Likewise, deprivation (aHR 1.17; 95% CI 1.14-1.20; most vs. least deprived) was associated with an increased risk of progression. Both younger (aHR 0.63; 95% CI 0.58-0.69; 18 to <30 years) and older individuals (aHR 0.85; 95% CI 0.84-0.87; ≥65 years) had a slower risk of progression from pre-diabetes to type 2 diabetes, than middle-aged (40 to <65 years) individuals.

conclusionsSouth Asian or Mixed-Race individuals and people with social deprivation had an increased risk of progression from pre-diabetes to type 2 diabetes. Clinicians need to recognise the differing risk across their patient populations to implement appropriate prevention strategies.

Indexed as

Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2Prediabetic StateAdolescentAdultEthnicityHumansMiddle AgedRetrospective StudiesRisk FactorsUnited Kingdomepidemiologyincidencepre-diabetesprogressiontype 2 diabetes

Identifiers

PMID36308066
PMCPMC10099224

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.