Evidence map›Paper›PMID 36306959›Full record

ReviewResuscitation2023

Self-fulfilling prophecies and machine learning in resuscitation science.

Maria De-Arteaga, Jonathan Elmer

Open access · greenAbstract readReview
In one paragraph

Review in Resuscitation, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 15 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
15citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
1.3field-weighted citation impact, top 18% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

15 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 23 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Guideline
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  13. Disorders of Consciousness Rehabilitation: Ethical Dimensions and Epistemic Dilemmas.Physical medicine and rehabilitation clinics of North America · 2024
    Review
  14. Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

2 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.

Maria De-ArteagaInformation, Risk and Operations Management Department, McCombs School of Business, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, USA.
Jonathan ElmerDepartments of Emergency Medicine, Critical Care Medicine and Neurology, University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine, Pittsburgh, PA, USA. Electronic address: elmerjp@upmc.edu.
The University of Texas at Austin · USUniversity of Pittsburgh · US

Funding

Optimizing Recovery prediction after Cardiac Arrest (ORCA)R01NS124642 · NINDS · UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH AT PITTSBURGH · PI Jonathan Elmer · 2022 to 2026
$3.2M
Quantitative electroencephalography after cardiac arrestK23NS097629 · NINDS · UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH AT PITTSBURGH · PI ELMER, JONATHAN · 2017 to 2021
$945k
NINDS NIH HHS K23 NS097629NINDS NIH HHS R01 NS124642
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

introductionGrowth of machine learning (ML) in healthcare has increased potential for observational data to guide clinical practice systematically. This can create self-fulfilling prophecies (SFPs), which arise when prediction of an outcome increases the chance that the outcome occurs.

methodsWe performed a scoping review, searching PubMed and ArXiv using terms related to machine learning, algorithmic fairness and bias. We reviewed results and selected manuscripts for inclusion based on expert opinion of well-designed or key studies and review articles. We summarized these articles to explore how use of ML can create, perpetuate or compound SFPs, and offer recommendations to mitigate these risks.

resultsWe identify-four key mechanisms through which SFPs may be reproduced or compounded by ML. First, imperfect human beliefs and behavior may be encoded as SFPs when treatment decisions are not accounted for. Since patient outcomes are influenced by a myriad of clinical actions, many of which are not collected in data, this is common. Second, human-machine interaction may compound SFPs through a cycle of mutual reinforcement. Third, ML may introduce new SFPs stemming from incorrect predictions. Finally, historically correct clinical choices may become SFPs in the face of medical progress.

conclusionThere is a need for broad recognition of SFPs as ML is increasingly applied in resuscitation science and across medicine. Acknowledging this challenge is crucial to inform research and practice that can transform ML from a tool that risks obfuscating and compounding SFPs into one that sheds light on and mitigates SFPs.

Indexed as

Machine LearningResuscitationHumansBiasMachine learningOutcomePrediction

Identifiers

PMID36306959
PMCPMC10687765
OpenAlexW4307392918

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceTDM
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.