ArticleThe Science of the total environment2023
Model training periods impact estimation of COVID-19 incidence from wastewater viral loads.
Article in The Science of the total environment, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 13 papers.
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Who cites it
13 citing papers in PubMed, 30 citations in OpenAlex.
- Real-time estimation of pathogen transmission dynamics from wastewater.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Wastewater-Based Surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 for Early Warning of COVID-19 Infection Dynamics.Viruses · 2026Article
- Article
- Innovations in Digital Health From a Global Perspective: Proceedings of PRC-HI 2024.Health care science · 2025Article
- Association between SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater and COVID-19 hospitalizations in three countries, 2022-2024.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
- Comparative assessment of Nanotrap and polyethylene glycol-based virus concentration in wastewater samples.FEMS microbes · 2024Article
- Bayesian sequential approach to monitor COVID-19 variants through test positivity rate from wastewater.mSystems · 2023Article
- Wastewater-based modeling, reconstruction, and prediction for COVID-19 outbreaks in Hungary caused by highly immune evasive variants.Water research · 2023Article
- Patterns of SARS-CoV-2 circulation revealed by a nationwide sewage surveillance programme, the Netherlands, August 2020 to February 2022.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2023Article
- The dynamic relationship between COVID-19 cases and SARS-CoV-2 wastewater concentrations across time and space: Considerations for model training data sets.The Science of the total environment · 2023Article
- An exploration of challenges associated with machine learning for time series forecasting of COVID-19 community spread using wastewater-based epidemiological data.The Science of the total environment · 2023Article
- Model training periods impact estimation of COVID-19 incidence from wastewater viral loads.The Science of the total environment · 2023Article
- Bayesian sequential approach to monitor COVID-19 variants through positivity rate from wastewater.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2023Article
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Authors and funding
15 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has been deployed broadly as an early warning tool for emerging COVID-19 outbreaks. WBE can inform targeted interventions and identify communities with high transmission, enabling quick and effective responses. As the wastewater (WW) becomes an increasingly important indicator for COVID-19 transmission, more robust methods and metrics are needed to guide public health decision-making. This research aimed to develop and implement a mathematical framework to infer incident cases of COVID-19 from SARS-CoV-2 levels measured in WW. We propose a classification scheme to assess the adequacy of model training periods based on clinical testing rates and assess the sensitivity of model predictions to training periods. A testing period is classified as adequate when the rate of change in testing is greater than the rate of change in cases. We present a Bayesian deconvolution and linear regression model to estimate COVID-19 cases from WW data. The effective reproductive number is estimated from reconstructed cases using WW. The proposed modeling framework was applied to three Northern California communities served by distinct WW treatment plants. The results showed that training periods with adequate testing are essential to provide accurate projections of COVID-19 incidence.
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Registered trials
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