Evidence map›Paper›PMID 36303456›Full record

ArticleJournal of the American Medical Informatics Association : JAMIA2022

New onset delirium prediction using machine learning and long short-term memory (LSTM) in electronic health record.

Siru Liu, Joseph J Schlesinger, Allison B McCoy, Thomas J Reese, Bryan Steitz, Elise Russo, Brian Koh, Adam Wright

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of the American Medical Informatics Association : JAMIA, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 17 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
17citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

17 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  13. Leveraging explainable artificial intelligence to optimize clinical decision support.Journal of the American Medical Informatics Association : JAMIA · 2024
    Article
  14. Nurse Education in Care of Delirium: Achieving a Change from Transcription and Translation to Interpretation for Reduced Strain.Indian journal of critical care medicine : peer-reviewed, official publication of Indian Society of Critical Care Medicine · 2024
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors.

Siru LiuDepartment of Biomedical Informatics, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, Tennessee, USA.
Joseph J SchlesingerDivision of Critical Care Medicine, Department of Anesthesiology, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, Tennessee, USA.
Allison B McCoyDepartment of Biomedical Informatics, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, Tennessee, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-2292-9147
Thomas J ReeseDepartment of Biomedical Informatics, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, Tennessee, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-1081-1670
Bryan SteitzDepartment of Biomedical Informatics, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, Tennessee, USA.
Elise RussoDepartment of Biomedical Informatics, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, Tennessee, USA.
Brian KohDepartment of Biomedical Informatics, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, Tennessee, USA.
Adam WrightDepartment of Biomedical Informatics, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, Tennessee, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-6844-145X

Funding

Safety Promotion through Early Event Detection in the Elderly (SPEEDe)R01AG062499 · NIA · VANDERBILT UNIVERSITY MEDICAL CENTER · PI WRIGHT, ADAM T · 2019 to 2023
$3.5M
Optimizing Clinical Decision Support Alerts Using Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI)K99LM014097 · NLM · VANDERBILT UNIVERSITY MEDICAL CENTER · PI LIU, SIRU · 2022 to 2022
$90k
NIA NIH HHS R01 AG062499NLM NIH HHS K99 LM014097
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectiveTo develop and test an accurate deep learning model for predicting new onset delirium in hospitalized adult patients.

methodsUsing electronic health record (EHR) data extracted from a large academic medical center, we developed a model combining long short-term memory (LSTM) and machine learning to predict new onset delirium and compared its performance with machine-learning-only models (logistic regression, random forest, support vector machine, neural network, and LightGBM). The labels of models were confusion assessment method (CAM) assessments. We evaluated models on a hold-out dataset. We calculated Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) measures to gauge the feature impact on the model.

resultsA total of 331 489 CAM assessments with 896 features from 34 035 patients were included. The LightGBM model achieved the best performance (AUC 0.927 [0.924, 0.929] and F1 0.626 [0.618, 0.634]) among the machine learning models. When combined with the LSTM model, the final model's performance improved significantly (P = .001) with AUC 0.952 [0.950, 0.955] and F1 0.759 [0.755, 0.765]. The precision value of the combined model improved from 0.497 to 0.751 with a fixed recall of 0.8. Using the mean absolute SHAP values, we identified the top 20 features, including age, heart rate, Richmond Agitation-Sedation Scale score, Morse fall risk score, pulse, respiratory rate, and level of care.

conclusionLeveraging LSTM to capture temporal trends and combining it with the LightGBM model can significantly improve the prediction of new onset delirium, providing an algorithmic basis for the subsequent development of clinical decision support tools for proactive delirium interventions.

Indexed as

DeliriumElectronic Health RecordsAdultHumansMachine LearningNeural Networks, Computerdeep learningdeliriumexplainable machine learningpredictive models

Identifiers

PMID36303456
PMCPMC9748586

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.