ArticleNature medicine2022
Retrospectively modeling the effects of increased global vaccine sharing on the COVID-19 pandemic.
Article in Nature medicine, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 58 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
58 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- A systematic review and meta-analysis of the global prevalence and determinants of COVID-19 vaccine acceptance and uptake in people living with HIV.Nature human behaviour · 2024Pooled it
- Objectionable Solidarity and Fractures in the Ethics of Global Health Solidarity : The Curse of COVID 19 Vaccine Donations Gone Awry.Journal of bioethical inquiry · 2026Article
- Economic factors promoting vaccine nationalism in the face of viral evolution.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- Article
- Understanding COVID-19 Vaccine Hesitancy in Black, East Asian, and Eastern European Diasporic Communities in Toronto: A Scoping Review.International journal of social determinants of health and health services · 2026Article
- In silico models in oncology, neurology, and epidemiology: systems-level and multiscale perspectives.NPJ systems biology and applications · 2026Review
- Global disparities in COVID-19 vaccine coverage associated with trajectories of SARS-CoV-2 adaptation.BMC infectious diseases · 2026Article
- Epidemiological impacts of nonpharmaceutical interventions are modulated by immunity exposure trade offs.Communications medicine · 2026Article
- Automated model discovery based on COVID-19 epidemiological data from Thuringia, Germany.PloS one · 2026Article
- The 'Other' face of health security: Reimagining epistemic attachments in global health.PLOS global public health · 2026Article
- Competing Theories on Global and Regional Vaccine Inequities: A Scoping Literature Review Within the Context of the COVID-19 Pandemic.Vaccines · 2025Review
- EpiGeoPop: a tool for developing spatially accurate country-level epidemiological models.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Mechanistic Insights into the Stabilizing Role of Deep Eutectic Solvents for Nucleic Acids: AnThe journal of physical chemistry. B · 2025Article
- SARS-CoV-2 incidence, seroprevalence, and antibody dynamics in a rural, population-based cohort: March 2020-July 2022.American journal of epidemiology · 2025Article
- Beyond the Pandemic Era: Recent Advances and Efficacy of SARS-CoV-2 Vaccines Against Emerging Variants of Concern.Vaccines · 2025Review
- Understanding Nash epidemics.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025Article
- Pathogens and planetary change.Nature reviews. Biodiversity · 2025Article
- Maternal and Neonatal Outcomes in Pregnant Women Vaccinated Against COVID-19 Compared to an Unvaccinated Group.International journal of women's health · 2025Article
- "Early, rapid, aggressive": when strategic interactions between governments, opposition, and lobbies can hinder effective responses to epidemics.Frontiers in epidemiology · 2025Article
- Intellectual Property Rights and Global Access to Health Technologies During Pandemics: Reflecting on Vaccine Nationalism, COVID-19 & the WHO Pandemic Agreement Negotiations - The Need for Collective Action and Institutional Change.The Journal of law, medicine & ethics : a journal of the American Society of Law, Medicine & Ethics · 2025Article
Corrections and comments
- Erratum issued
Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
Abstract
The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic has caused considerable morbidity and mortality worldwide. The protection provided by vaccines and booster doses offered a method of mitigating severe clinical outcomes and mortality. However, by the end of 2021, the global distribution of vaccines was highly heterogeneous, with some countries gaining over 90% coverage in adults, whereas others reached less than 2%. In this study, we used an age-structured model of SARS-CoV-2 dynamics, matched to national data from 152 countries in 2021, to investigate the global impact of different potential vaccine sharing protocols that attempted to address this inequity. We quantified the effects of implemented vaccine rollout strategies on the spread of SARS-CoV-2, the subsequent global burden of disease and the emergence of novel variants. We found that greater vaccine sharing would have lowered the total global burden of disease, and any associated increases in infections in previously vaccine-rich countries could have been mitigated by reduced relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions. Our results reinforce the health message, pertinent to future pandemics, that vaccine distribution proportional to wealth, rather than to need, may be detrimental to all.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.