Evidence map›Paper›PMID 36300897›Full record

ReviewDeutsches Arzteblatt international2022

Compression and Expansion of Morbidity—Secular Trends Among Cohorts of the Same Age

Siegfried Geyer, Sveja Eberhard

Abstract readReview
In one paragraph

Review in Deutsches Arzteblatt international, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 14 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
14citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

14 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Functional reserve mitigates cognitive-motor dual-task costs in older adults: insights from age, cohort, and behavioural strategies.European review of aging and physical activity : official journal of the European Group for Research into Elderly and Physical Activity · 2026
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

2 authors.

Siegfried GeyerMedical Sociology Unit, Hannover Medical School, HannoverAOK Niedersachsen, Hannover.
Sveja Eberhard

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundMorbidity is said to be compressed when the interval from the onset of a disease or disability to death becomes shorter over time, or when the incidence of the disease or disability declines over time. In the reverse situation, morbidity is said to be expanded.

methodsThis review is based on national and international studies retrieved by a selective literature search on secular trends in morbidity and mortality. The findings were derived from data from surveys and registries, and from the routine data of health insurance carriers.

resultsThree different types of secular trends in morbidity were seen. For some diseases (e.g., lung cancer, stroke, and dementia), morbidity among the elderly was compressed over time. On the other hand, for multimorbidity and type 2 diabetes including comorbidities, morbidity expanded over time. Unexpectedly, a double development was seen in certain other conditions, with both compression among the elderly and expansion among the middle-aged: this was particularly so for myo - cardial infarction, grip strength, and indicators of general health.

conclusionThe notion of morbidity being reduced by compression seems less tenable in view of the double development just mentioned. The findings suggest that the observed secular trend toward better health among the elderly has not persisted among the more recently born cohorts. This can have negative effects on social security systems, particularly with respect to retirement ages being deferred or made more flexible, as well as the cost of health care.

Indexed as

Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2Persons with DisabilitiesStrokeAgedHumansIncidenceMiddle AgedMorbidity

Identifiers

PMID36300897
PMCPMC9906028

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.