ArticleViruses2022
Lumpy Skin Disease Outbreaks in Africa, Europe, and Asia (2005-2022): Multiple Change Point Analysis and Time Series Forecast.
Article in Viruses, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 25 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
25 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- A systematic review of epidemiological modelling in response to lumpy skin disease outbreaks.Frontiers in veterinary science · 2024Pooled it
- The global scenario of lumpy skin disease, its epidemiological investigation, and prevalence in livestock: A review.Veterinary and animal science · 2026Review
- Analyzing Global Threat of Lumpy Skin Disease Virus Infection: A Comparative Study of a Time Series Model and Machine Learning Models Across 10 High-Risk Countries.Current microbiology · 2026Article
- Global expansion of lumpy skin disease: transmission trends, economic consequences, and preventive measures.Veterinary research communications · 2025Review
- Implementation of a Deep Learning System for Detection and Classification of Lumpy Skin Disease in Cattle: Enhancing Precision and Efficiency in Veterinary Diagnostics.Veterinary medicine and science · 2025Article
- Multiple change point analysis and time series forecast of brucellosis reports in Xinjiang, China from 2010 to 2024.BMC public health · 2025Article
- Spatiotemporal cluster analysis and predicting lumpy skin disease outbreaks in cattle in selected zones of Oromia region, Ethiopia from 2008-2022.Veterinary and animal science · 2025Article
- Host transcriptome profiling for resistance against lumpy skin disease (LSD).BMC research notes · 2025Article
- Using online public animal price data as a signal for predicting an increase in animal disease outbreak reports: a pilot study on cross-correlation modeling in Thailand.BMC veterinary research · 2025Article
- Lumpy skin disease virus suppresses the antiviral response of bovine peripheral blood mononuclear cells that support viral dissemination.Veterinary research · 2025Article
- Lumpy skin disease: A growing threat to the global livestock industry.Open veterinary journal · 2025Review
- Change point detection in brucellosis time series from 2010 to 2023 in Xinjiang China using the BEAST algorithm.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Investigating Transboundary Spread Patterns and Cluster Characteristics of Lumpy Skin Disease (LSD) Outbreaks in Asia: Levering the Outbreak Data (2019-2023) to Support the LSD Prevention and Control Strategies.Transboundary and emerging diseases · 2025Article
- Lumpy Skin Disease: Insights into Molecular Pathogenesis and Control Strategies.Veterinary sciences · 2024Review
- Cross-correlation and time series analysis of rabies in different animal species in Nepal from 2005 to 2018.Heliyon · 2024Article
- Prevalence of Lumpy Skin Disease in Africa: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis from 2007 to 2023.Veterinary medicine international · 2024Review
- Epidemiological Risk Factors and Modelling Approaches for Risk Assessment of Lumpy Skin Disease Virus Introduction and Spread: Methodological Review and Implications for Risk-Based Surveillance in Australia.Transboundary and emerging diseases · 2024Review
- Estimating the Transmission Kernel for Lumpy Skin Disease Virus from Data on Outbreaks in Thailand in 2021.Viruses · 2023Article
- Isolation, adaptation, and characterization of lumpy skin disease virus from cattle in Bangladesh.Journal of advanced veterinary and animal research · 2023Article
- Lumpy skin disease as an emerging infectious disease.Journal of veterinary science · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
LSD is an important transboundary disease affecting the cattle industry worldwide. The objectives of this study were to determine trends and significant change points, and to forecast the number of LSD outbreak reports in Africa, Europe, and Asia. LSD outbreak report data (January 2005 to January 2022) from the World Organization for Animal Health were analyzed. We determined statistically significant change points in the data using binary segmentation, and forecast the number of LSD reports using auto-regressive moving average (ARIMA) and neural network auto-regressive (NNAR) models. Four significant change points were identified for each continent. The year between the third and fourth change points (2016-2019) in the African data was the period with the highest mean of number of LSD reports. All change points of LSD outbreaks in Europe corresponded with massive outbreaks during 2015-2017. Asia had the highest number of LSD reports in 2019 after the third detected change point in 2018. For the next three years (2022-2024), both ARIMA and NNAR forecast a rise in the number of LSD reports in Africa and a steady number in Europe. However, ARIMA predicts a stable number of outbreaks in Asia, whereas NNAR predicts an increase in 2023-2024. This study provides information that contributes to a better understanding of the epidemiology of LSD.
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