Evidence map›Paper›PMID 36289386›Full record

ReviewNature2022

The missing risks of climate change.

James Rising, Marco Tedesco, Franziska Piontek, David A Stainforth

Open access · bronzeAbstract readReview
PubMed Publisher
In one paragraph

Review in Nature, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 41 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
41citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
61.8field-weighted citation impact, top 1% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

41 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 248 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. Association between compound PMArchives of public health = Archives belges de sante publique · 2026
    Article
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. COApplied microbiology and biotechnology · 2026
    Review
  10. Valuing wildfire smoke-related mortality benefits from climate mitigation.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026
    Article
  11. Article
  12. Heatwave Exposure Accelerates Biological Aging via Metabolic Dysregulation.Cyborg and bionic systems (Washington, D.C.) · 2026
    Article
  13. Review
  14. Article
  15. Article
  16. Stochastic responses and marginal valuation.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025
    Article
  17. Article
  18. Review
  19. Article
  20. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors at 4 institutions in 3 countries.

James RisingSchool of Marine Science and Policy, University of Delaware, Newark, DE, USA. jrising@udel.edu.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8514-4748
Marco TedescoLamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia Climate School, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-7549-9307
Franziska PiontekPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4305-7552
David A StainforthGrantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, UK.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-6476-733X
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory · USLeibniz Association · DEUniversity of Delaware · USUniversity of Warwick · GB

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The risks of climate change are enormous, threatening the lives and livelihoods of millions to billions of people. The economic consequences of many of the complex risks associated with climate change cannot, however, currently be quantified. Here we argue that these unquantified, poorly understood and often deeply uncertain risks can and should be included in economic evaluations and decision-making processes. We present an overview of these unquantified risks and an ontology of them founded on the reasons behind their lack of robust evaluation. These consist of risks missing owing to delays in sharing knowledge and expertise across disciplines, spatial and temporal variations of climate impacts, feedbacks and interactions between risks, deep uncertainty in our knowledge, and currently unidentified risks. We highlight collaboration needs within and between the natural and social science communities to address these gaps. We also provide an approach for integrating assessments or speculations of these risks in a way that accounts for interdependencies, avoids double counting and makes assumptions clear. Multiple paths exist for engaging with these missing risks, with both model-based quantification and non-model-based qualitative assessments playing crucial roles. A wide range of climate impacts are understudied or challenging to quantify, and are missing from current evaluations of the climate risks to lives and livelihoods. Strong interdisciplinary collaboration and deeper engagement with uncertainty is needed to properly inform policymakers and the public about climate risks.

Indexed as

Climate ChangeClimate ModelsModels, EconomicRisk AssessmentHumansNatural Science DisciplinesPolicy MakingSocial SciencesUncertainty

Identifiers

PMID36289386
OpenAlexW4307843299

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.