ArticleLa Medicina del lavoro2022
Updated estimates of excess total mortality in Italy during the circulation of the BA.2 and BA.4-5 Omicron variants: April-July 2022.
Article in La Medicina del lavoro, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers.
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Who cites it
6 citing papers in PubMed.
- Neurofilament light chain and glial fibrillary acid protein levels are elevated in post-mild COVID-19 or asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 cases.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- COVID-19 Marked a Change in the Scope of Occupational Medicine from Occupational to Work-Related Diseases and Total Worker Health®.La Medicina del lavoro · 2023Article
- No Excess Total Mortality in Italy in the First Semester of 2023 at All Ages and in the Working Age Population.La Medicina del lavoro · 2023Article
- Two years of SARS-CoV-2 pandemic and COVID-19 in Lombardy, Italy.Internal and emergency medicine · 2023Article
- Still Unanswered Questions About SARS-CoV-2 Mortality and Future Directions for Occupational Medicine.La Medicina del lavoro · 2023Article
- Excess Total Mortality in Italy: An Update to February 2023 with Focus on Working Ages.La Medicina del lavoro · 2023Article
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Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundThe impact of new lineages and sub-lineages of Omicron on total and excess mortality is largely unknown. This study aims to provide estimates of excess mortality during the circulation of the Omicron variant in Italy updated to July 2022.
methodsOver-dispersed Poisson regression models, fitted separately for men and women, on 2011-2019 mortality data were used to estimate the expected number of deaths during the Covid-19 pandemic. The excess deaths were then obtained by the difference between observed and expected deaths and computed at all ages and at working ages (25-64 years).
resultsBetween April and June 2022, we estimated 9,631 excess deaths (+6.3%) at all ages (4,400 in April, 3,369 in May, 1,862 in June) and 12,090 in July 2022 (+23.4%). At working ages, the excess was 763 (+4.9%) in April-June 2022 and 679 (+13.0%) in July 2022.
conclusionsExcess total mortality persisted during the circulation of different lineages and sub-lineages of the Omicron variant in Italy. This excess was not limited to the elderly population but involved also working age individuals, though the absolute number of deaths was small. The substantial excess found in July 2022 is, however, largely attributable to high temperatures. At the end of the year, this may translate into 30 to 35,000 excess deaths, i.e. over 5% excess mortality. This reversed the long-term trend toward increasing life expectancy, with the relative implications in social security and retirement schemes.
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