ArticleJournal of Korean medical science2022
The Possible Impact of Nationwide Vaccination on Outcomes of the COVID-19 Epidemic in North Korea: A Modelling Study.
Article in Journal of Korean medical science, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.
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2 citing papers in PubMed.
- Key Features and Controversies of the COVID-19 Epidemic and Response in North Korea.Journal of Korean medical science · 2025Article
- Impact of vaccination and non-pharmacological interventions on COVID-19: a review of simulation modeling studies in Asia.Frontiers in public health · 2023Review
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Authors and funding
2 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundThe Democratic People's Republic of Korea (North Korea) had successfully suppressed the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic via border closures. However, a rapid surge in incidence was reported due to the spread of the omicron variant (B.1.1.529), leading to a national emergency declaration in May 2022. Moreover, with the lack of vaccine accessibility and medical facilities, it is unclear how the disease burden may be exacerbated. Despite the limited epidemiological data, we aimed to project the COVID-19 transmissions in North Korea and quantify the potential impact of nationwide vaccination, comparing epidemiological outcomes via scenario analysis.
methodsA discrete-time deterministic compartmental model was used. The parameters were calibrated using empirical data. Numerical simulations incorporated nationwide COVID-19 vaccination into the proposed model with various asymptomatic proportions.
resultsOur model suggested that the stringent public health and social measures (PHSMs) reduced the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 transmissibility by more than 80% in North Korea. Projections that explicitly incorporated vaccination indicated that nationwide vaccination would be necessary to suppress a huge resurgence in both COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations after the stringent PHSMs are eased. Moreover, vaccinating more than 80% of the population with two doses may keep the peak prevalence of hospitalizations below 1,500, averting more than 40,000 hospitalizations across all scenarios.
conclusionNationwide vaccination would be essential to suppress the prevalence of COVID-19 hospitalizations in North Korea after the stringent PHSMs are lifted, especially in the case of a small asymptomatic proportion.
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