Evidence map›Paper›PMID 36261815›Full record

ArticleBMC public health2022

A hybrid of long short-term memory neural network and autoregressive integrated moving average model in forecasting HIV incidence and morality of post-neonatal population in East Asia: global burden of diseases 2000-2019.

Ying Chen, Jiawen He, Meihua Wang

Open access · goldAbstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in BMC public health, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
4citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
0.8field-weighted citation impact, top 28% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

4 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 5 citations in OpenAlex.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.

Ying ChenRespiratory Medicine Department, XiXi Hospital of HangZhou (Affiliated HangZhou XiXi Hospital, Zhe Jiang University School of Medicine), No.2 Hengbu Road, Liuxia Street, Xihu District, Hangzhou, 310000, Zhejiang Province, China.
Jiawen HeRespiratory Medicine Department, XiXi Hospital of HangZhou (Affiliated HangZhou XiXi Hospital, Zhe Jiang University School of Medicine), No.2 Hengbu Road, Liuxia Street, Xihu District, Hangzhou, 310000, Zhejiang Province, China.
Meihua WangRespiratory Medicine Department, XiXi Hospital of HangZhou (Affiliated HangZhou XiXi Hospital, Zhe Jiang University School of Medicine), No.2 Hengbu Road, Liuxia Street, Xihu District, Hangzhou, 310000, Zhejiang Province, China. wangmeihuaxixi@outlook.com.
Hangzhou Xixi hospital · CN

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundTo forecast the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) incidence and mortality of post-neonatal population in East Asia including North Korea, South Korea, Mongolia, Japan and China Mainland and Taiwan province.

methodsThe data on the incidence and mortality of HIV in post-neonatal population from East Asia were obtained from the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD). The morbidity and mortality of post-neonatal HIV population from GBD 2000 to GBD 2013 were applied as the training set and the morbidity and mortality from GBD 2014 to GBD 2019 were used as the testing set. The hybrid of ARIMA and LSTM model was used to construct the model for assessing the morbidity and mortality in the countries and territories of East Asia, and predicting the morbidity and mortality in the next 5 years.

resultsIn North Korea, the incidence and mortality of HIV showed a rapid increase during 2000-2010 and a gradual decrease during 2010-2019. The incidence of HIV was predicted to be increased and the mortality was decreased. In South Korea, the incidence was increased during 2000-2010 and decreased during 2010-2019, while the mortality showed fluctuant trend. As predicted, the incidence of HIV in South Korea might be increased and the mortality might be decreased during 2020-2025. In Mongolia, the incidence and mortality were slowly decreased during 2000-2005, increased during 2005-2015, and rapidly decreased till 2019. The predicted incidence and mortality of HIV showed a decreased trend. As for Japan, the incidence of HIV was rapidly increased till 2010 and then decreased till 2015. The predicted incidence of HIV in Japan was gradually increased. The mortality of HIV in Japan was fluctuant during 2000-2019 and was slowly decreased as predicted. The incidence and mortality of HIV in Taiwan during 2000-2019 was increased on the whole. The predicted incidence of HIV during was stationary and the mortality was decreased. In terms of China Mainland, the incidence and mortality of HIV was fluctuant during 2000-2019. The predicted incidence of HIV in China Mainland was stationary while the mortality was rapidly decreased.

conclusionOn the whole, the incidence of HIV combined with other diseases in post-neonatal population was increased before 2010 and then decreased during 2010-2019 while the mortality of those patients was decreased in East Asia.

Indexed as

Global Burden of DiseaseHIV InfectionsModels, StatisticalAsia, EasternForecastingHumansIncidenceNeural Networks, ComputerAutoregressive integrated moving average modelEast AsiaHuman immunodeficiency virus. Incidence and mortalityLong short-term memory neural network model

Identifiers

PMID36261815
PMCPMC9580197
OpenAlexW4306786896

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.