ArticleJournal of global health2022
Measurement and projection of the burden of disease attributable to population aging in 188 countries, 1990-2050: A population-based study.
Article in Journal of global health, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 49 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
49 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
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- Visual field assessment and driving licence eligibility in India: A hospital-based cross-sectional study.Indian journal of ophthalmology · 2026Observational
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- The burden of severe chest injuries in five East Asian countries: a secondary age-period-cohort analysis of GBD 2023.Journal of thoracic disease · 2026Article
- Diverging trends in motor neuron disease burden in China: an ageing-driven increase despite declining age-standardised rates - a GBD 2021 analysis.Neurological sciences : official journal of the Italian Neurological Society and of the Italian Society of Clinical Neurophysiology · 2026Article
- "Comprehensive multi-omics of age-respective plasma and matrix-bound extracellular vesicles identifies anti-fibrotic miRNAs validated on a heart-on-a-chip".Biomaterials · 2026Article
- Causes and extent of avoidable mortality across the european union: insights for advancing healthy aging.GeroScience · 2026Article
- Decoding the Spatiotemporal Logic of Cellular Senescence through Multimodal Exosomal miRNA Integration.JACS Au · 2026Article
- Association between the oxidative balance score and biological aging measured by epigenetic clock: insight from the NHANES 1999-2002.Clinical epigenetics · 2026Article
- Impact of public hospital restructuring on the admission of elderly residents in Japan: a regional population-based study.BMC health services research · 2026Article
- Burden of Middle-Aged and Elderly Patients With Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma From 1990 to 2021: A Systematic Analysis Based on the Global Burden of Disease 2021.Cancer medicine · 2026Article
- Frailty and Cardiometabolic Outcomes: A Narrative Review.Journal of clinical medicine · 2026Review
- Identifying priority diseases and injuries to promote equality as measured by health-adjusted life expectancy: a population-based study.BMJ global health · 2026Article
- Use of comprehensive geriatric assessment among oncologists in Uruguay: perceptions, practices and barriers.Ecancermedicalscience · 2026Article
- The pan-immune-inflammation value predicts stroke-associated pneumonia and poor outcome in spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage: a machine learning approach.Frontiers in neurology · 2026Article
- Cross-sectional analysis of the association between physical activity and metabolic syndrome in the elderly.Frontiers in endocrinology · 2026Article
- Dietary Patterns Influence Chronic Disease Risk and Health Outcomes in Older Adults: A Narrative Review.Nutrients · 2025Review
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Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Background: Quantitative attribution of the burden of disease due to population aging is an important part of setting meaningful global health priorities. This study comprehensively examines the burden of disease attributable to population aging in 188 countries from 1990 to 2019, incorporates a comprehensive range of diseases, and projects the burden of disease due to population aging till 2050. Methods: We extracted data from 1990 to 2019 for 188 countries from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. We decomposed the change in disease burden into the contribution of the age structure of the population, population size, and age-specific disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates due to all other reasons. We used the Bayesian age-period-cohort model to evaluate the effects of age on temporal trends, and then to predict the possible disease burden in 2050. Results: At the global level, the change in total DALYs associated with age structure, population size, and all other reasons is 27.4%, 16.8%, and 89.4% (absolute level of DALYs attributable to age structure: -15.20 million, 9.32 million, and -49.58 million) of the absolute level of DALYs gap between 2019 and 1990. The absolute level of DALYs changes attributable to age structure for communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases were negative in all income groups from 1990 to 2019. For non-communicable diseases, the contribution was positive except in the low-income group. For injuries, the contribution was positive in lower-middle-income groups and low-income groups. By 2050, DALY rates decreased in all income groups, if compared to 2019. However, a total of 132 countries may see a gradual increase of all-cause DALYs attributable to population aging. Conclusions: The direction and intensity of the effects of population aging on the burden of disease vary by region and disease, with huge implications for global health in the future.
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