Evidence map›Paper›PMID 36247109›Full record

ReviewJournal of biogeography2022

Understanding climate change impacts on biome and plant distributions in the Andes: Challenges and opportunities.

Carolina Tovar, Andrea F Carril, Alvaro G Gutiérrez, Antje Ahrends, Lluis Fita, Pablo Zaninelli, Pedro Flombaum, Ana M Abarzúa, Diego Alarcón, Valeria Aschero and 15 more

Open access · hybridAbstract readReview
In one paragraph

Review in Journal of biogeography, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 20 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
20citing papers in PubMed
24.2field-weighted citation impact, top 1% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

20 citing papers in PubMed, 104 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Present and Future Climatic Suitability ofPlants (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026
    Article
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. Pollination ecology in the tropical Andes: moving towards a cross-scale approach.Biological reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society · 2025
    Review
  5. Amazonian and Andean tree communities are not tracking current climate warming.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025
    Article
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Article
  10. Article
  11. Article
  12. Article
  13. Review
  14. Article
  15. Article
  16. Changes ofRoyal Society open science · 2023
    Article
  17. Phylogeography ofGenes · 2022
    Article
  18. Review
  19. Article
  20. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

25 authors at 10 institutions in 6 countries.

Carolina TovarRoyal Botanic Gardens Kew Surrey UK.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8256-9174
Andrea F CarrilUniversidad de Buenos Aires - CONICET Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera (CIMA) Buenos Aires Argentina.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3743-9685
Alvaro G GutiérrezDepartamento de Ciencias Ambientales y Recursos Naturales Renovables, Facultad de Ciencias Agronómicas Universidad de Chile Santiago Chile.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8928-3198
Antje AhrendsRoyal Botanic Garden Edinburgh Edinburgh UK.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5083-7760
Lluis FitaUniversidad de Buenos Aires - CONICET Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera (CIMA) Buenos Aires Argentina.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6046-4806
Pablo ZaninelliUniversidad de Buenos Aires - CONICET Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera (CIMA) Buenos Aires Argentina.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1866-3403
Pedro FlombaumUniversidad de Buenos Aires - CONICET Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera (CIMA) Buenos Aires Argentina.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5307-4319
Ana M AbarzúaUniversidad Austral de Chile Instituto Ciencias de la Tierra Valdivia Chile.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2501-8525
Diego AlarcónInstituto de Ecología y Biodiversidad (IEB) Chile.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3751-047X
Valeria AscheroInstituto Argentino de Nivología Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales (IANIGLA), CCT-CONICET Mendoza Argentina.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3865-4133
Selene BáezDepartamento de Biología Escuela Politécnica Nacional del Ecuador Quito Ecuador.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7236-6242
Agustina BarrosInstituto Argentino de Nivología Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales (IANIGLA), CCT-CONICET Mendoza Argentina.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6810-2391
Julieta CarillaInstituto de Ecología Regional Universidad Nacional de Tucumán - CONICET Tucumán Argentina.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7034-4154
M Eugenia FerreroInstituto Argentino de Nivología Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales (IANIGLA), CCT-CONICET Mendoza Argentina.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6858-2164
Suzette G A FlantuaDepartment of Biological Sciences University of Bergen Bergen Norway.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6526-3037
Paúl GonzálesLaboratorio de Florística, Departamento de Dicotiledóneas Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos, Museo de Historia Natural Lima Peru.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6799-376X
Claudio G MenéndezUniversidad de Buenos Aires - CONICET Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera (CIMA) Buenos Aires Argentina.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2779-7123
Oscar A Pérez-EscobarRoyal Botanic Gardens Kew Surrey UK.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9166-2410
Aníbal PauchardInstituto de Ecología y Biodiversidad (IEB) Chile.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1284-3163
Romina C RuscicaUniversidad de Buenos Aires - CONICET Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera (CIMA) Buenos Aires Argentina.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0127-9579
Tiina SärkinenRoyal Botanic Garden Edinburgh Edinburgh UK.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6956-3093
Anna A SörenssonUniversidad de Buenos Aires - CONICET Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera (CIMA) Buenos Aires Argentina.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5093-9655
Ana SrurInstituto Argentino de Nivología Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales (IANIGLA), CCT-CONICET Mendoza Argentina.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8533-5296
Ricardo VillalbaCNRS - IRD - CONICET - UBA Institut Franco-Argentin d'Études sur le Climat et ses Impacts (IFAECI) Buenos Aires y Mendoza Argentina.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8183-0310
Peter M HollingsworthRoyal Botanic Garden Edinburgh Edinburgh UK.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0602-0654
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas · ARRoyal Botanic Garden Edinburgh · GBInstitute of Ecology and Biodiversity · CLRoyal Botanic Gardens, Kew · GBAustral University of Chile · CLBjerknes Centre for Climate Research · NONational Polytechnic School · ECNational University of San Marcos · PENational University of Tucumán · ARUniversity of Concepción · CL

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Aim: Climate change is expected to impact mountain biodiversity by shifting species ranges and the biomes they shape. The extent and regional variation in these impacts are still poorly understood, particularly in the highly biodiverse Andes. Regional syntheses of climate change impacts on vegetation are pivotal to identify and guide research priorities. Here we review current data, knowledge and uncertainties in past, present and future climate change impacts on vegetation in the Andes. Methods: We (i) conducted a literature review on Andean vegetation responses to past and contemporary climatic change, (ii) analysed future climate projections for different elevations and slope orientations at 19 Andean locations using an ensemble of model outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5, and (iii) calculated changes in the suitable climate envelope area of Andean biomes and compared these results to studies that used species distribution models. Results: Future climatic changes (2040-2070) are projected to be stronger at high-elevation areas in the tropical Andes (up to 4°C under RCP 8.5), while in the temperate Andes temperature increases are projected to be up to 2°C. Under this worst-case scenario, temperate deciduous forests and the grasslands/steppes from the Central and Southern Andes are predicted to show the greatest losses of suitable climatic space (30% and 17%-23%, respectively). The high vulnerability of these biomes contrasts with the low attention from researchers modelling Andean species distributions. Critical knowledge gaps include a lack of an Andean wide plant checklist, insufficient density of weather stations at high-elevation areas, a lack of high-resolution climatologies that accommodates the Andes' complex topography and climatic processes, insufficient data to model demographic and ecological processes, and low use of palaeo data for distribution modelling. Main conclusions: Climate change is likely to profoundly affect the extent and composition of Andean biomes. Temperate Andean biomes in particular are susceptible to substantial area contractions. There are, however, considerable challenges and uncertainties in modelling species and biome responses and a pressing need for a region-wide approach to address knowledge gaps and improve understanding and monitoring of climate change impacts in these globally important biomes.

Indexed as

Andesclimate changeplant biodiversityplant dynamicsspecies distribution modelling

Identifiers

PMID36247109
PMCPMC9543992
OpenAlexW4281771484

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.