ArticleHealth and technology2022
Predictive analytics of COVID-19 cases and tourist arrivals in ASEAN based on covid-19 cases.
Article in Health and technology, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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3 authors.
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Abstract
Purpose: Research into predictive analytics, which helps predict future values using historical data, is crucial. In order to foresee future instances of COVID-19, a method based on the Seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA) model is proposed here. Additionally, the suggested model is able to predict tourist arrivals in the tourism business by factoring in COVID-19 during the pandemic. In this paper, we present a model that uses time-series analysis to predict the impact of a pandemic event, in this case the spread of the Coronavirus pandemic (Covid-19). Methods: The proposed approach outperformed the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Holt Winters models in all experiments for forecasting future values using COVID-19 and tourism datasets, with the lowest mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), mean squared error (MSE), and root mean squared error (RMSE). The SARIMA model predicts COVID-19 and tourist arrivals with and without the COVID-19 pandemic with less than 5% MAPE error. Results: The suggested method provides a dashboard that shows COVID-19 and tourism-related information to end users. The suggested tool can be deployed in the healthcare, tourism, and government sectors to monitor the number of COVID-19 cases and determine the correlation between COVID-19 cases and tourism. Conclusion: Management in the tourism industries and stakeholders are expected to benefit from this study in making decisions about whether or not to keep funding a given tourism business. The datasets, codes, and all the experiments are available for further research, and details are included in the appendix.
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