ArticleSystem dynamics review
Behavioral responses to risk promote vaccinating high-contact individuals first.
Article in System dynamics review. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 8 papers.
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Who cites it
8 citing papers in PubMed.
- Faster Uptake, Slower Let-Down: Asymmetric Community Responses to Changing Risks During a Pandemic.Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · 2026Article
- Learning from the COVID-19 pandemic: A systematic review of mathematical vaccine prioritization models.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2024Review
- Adaptive human behaviour modulates the impact of immune life history and vaccination on long-term epidemic dynamics.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2024Article
- Learning from the COVID-19 pandemic: a systematic review of mathematical vaccine prioritization models.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2024Article
- A missing behavioural feedback in COVID-19 models is the key to several puzzles.BMJ global health · 2022Article
- Interventions to increase COVID-19 vaccine uptake: a scoping review.The Cochrane database of systematic reviews · 2022Article
- Weather, air pollution, and SARS-CoV-2 transmission: a global analysis.The Lancet. Planetary health · 2021Article
- COVID-19 Vaccine Allocation: Modeling Health Outcomes and Equity Implications of Alternative Strategies.Engineering (Beijing, China) · 2021Article
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Authors and funding
1 author.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
How should communities prioritize COVID-19 vaccinations? Prior studies found that prioritizing the elderly and most vulnerable minimizes deaths. However, prior research has ignored how behavioral responses to risk of disease endogenously change transmission rates. We show that incorporating risk-driven behavioral responses enhances fit to data and may change prioritization to vaccinating high-contact individuals. Behavioral responses matter because deaths grow exponentially until communities are compelled to reduce contacts, with deaths stabilizing at levels that oblige higher-contact groups to sufficiently cut their interactions and slow transmissions. More lives may be saved by vaccinating and taking those high-contact groups out of transmission chains earlier because the remaining groups will take more precautions while waiting for their turn for vaccination. These findings are especially important considering the need for further vaccination in many countries, the emergence of new variants, and the expected challenge of distributing new vaccines in the coming months and years. © 2022 The Author.
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