Evidence map›Paper›PMID 36245665›Full record

ArticleKidney3602022

A Machine Learning Model for Predicting Mortality within 90 Days of Dialysis Initiation.

Summer Rankin, Lucy Han, Rebecca Scherzer, Susan Tenney, Matthew Keating, Kimberly Genberg, Matthew Rahn, Kenneth Wilkins, Michael Shlipak, Michelle Estrella

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Kidney360, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 16 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
16citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

16 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  11. Designing an Implementable Clinical Prediction Model for Near-Term Mortality and Long-Term Survival in Patients on Maintenance Hemodialysis.American journal of kidney diseases : the official journal of the National Kidney Foundation · 2024
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors.

Summer RankinBooz Allen Hamilton, McLean, Virginia.ORCID 0000-0002-6886-3983
Lucy HanBooz Allen Hamilton, McLean, Virginia.ORCID 0000-0003-4059-0327
Rebecca ScherzerKidney Health Research Collaborative (KHRC), University of California San Francisco (UCSF), San Francisco, California.
Susan TenneyBooz Allen Hamilton, McLean, Virginia.ORCID 0000-0001-5749-189
Matthew KeatingBooz Allen Hamilton, McLean, Virginia.
Kimberly GenbergBooz Allen Hamilton, McLean, Virginia.
Matthew RahnOffice of the National Coordinator for Health Information Technology (ONC), Washington, DC.
Kenneth WilkinsNational Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases (NIDDK), Bethesda, Maryland.
Michael ShlipakKidney Health Research Collaborative (KHRC), University of California San Francisco (UCSF), San Francisco, California.
Michelle EstrellaKidney Health Research Collaborative (KHRC), University of California San Francisco (UCSF), San Francisco, California.ORCID 0000-0002-8902-9576

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Background: The first 90 days after dialysis initiation are associated with high morbidity and mortality in end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) patients. A machine learning-based tool for predicting mortality could inform patient-clinician shared decision making on whether to initiate dialysis or pursue medical management. We used the eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithm to predict mortality in the first 90 days after dialysis initiation in a nationally representative population from the United States Renal Data System. Methods: A cohort of adults initiating dialysis between 2008-2017 were studied for outcome of death within 90 days of dialysis initiation. The study dataset included 188 candidate predictors prognostic of early mortality that were known on or before the first day of dialysis and was partitioned into training (70%) and testing (30%) subsets. XGBoost modeling used a complete-case set and a dataset obtained from multiple imputation. Model performance was evaluated by c-statistics overall and stratified by subgroups of age, sex, race, and dialysis modality. Results: The analysis included 1,150,195 patients with ESKD, of whom 86,083 (8%) died in the first 90 days after dialysis initiation. The XGBoost models discriminated mortality risk in the nonimputed ( Conclusions: The XGBoost-based model developed in this study discriminated risk of early mortality after dialysis initiation with excellent calibration and performed well across key subgroups.

Indexed as

Kidney Failure, ChronicMachine LearningModels, StatisticalRenal DialysisAdultCohort StudiesFemaleHumansMaleReproducibility of ResultsRisk AssessmentTime FactorsTreatment OutcomeUnited Stateschronic kidney failurechronic renal failuredialysisend stage kidney diseaseESRDmachine learningmortalityoutcomesprediction modelingUnited States Renal Data System

Identifiers

PMID36245665
PMCPMC9528387

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.