Evidence map›Paper›PMID 36242829›Full record

ArticleThe International journal on drug policy2022

Modelling the contribution of incarceration and public health oriented drug law reform to HCV transmission and elimination among PWID in Tijuana, Mexico.

Carlos D Rivera Saldana, Leo Beletsky, Annick Borquez, Susan M Kiene, Lara K Marquez, Steffanie A Strathdee, María Luisa Zúñiga, Javier Cepeda, Natasha K Martin

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In one paragraph

Article in The International journal on drug policy, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
2citing papers in PubMed
0.3field-weighted citation impact, top 40% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2 citing papers in PubMed, 2 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Article
  2. Observational
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors at 5 institutions in 2 countries.

Carlos D Rivera SaldanaDivision of Infectious Diseases and Global Public Health, Department of Medicine, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, 92093, United States; School of Public Health, San Diego State University, San Diego, CA, 92182, United States. Electronic address: cdr009@health.ucsd.edu.
Leo BeletskyDivision of Infectious Diseases and Global Public Health, Department of Medicine, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, 92093, United States; School of Law and Bouve College of Health Sciences, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, 02115, United States.
Annick BorquezDivision of Infectious Diseases and Global Public Health, Department of Medicine, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, 92093, United States.
Susan M KieneSchool of Public Health, San Diego State University, San Diego, CA, 92182, United States.
Lara K MarquezDivision of Infectious Diseases and Global Public Health, Department of Medicine, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, 92093, United States.
Steffanie A StrathdeeDivision of Infectious Diseases and Global Public Health, Department of Medicine, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, 92093, United States.
María Luisa ZúñigaSchool of Social Work, San Diego State University, San Diego, CA, 92182, United States.
Javier CepedaDepartment of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, 21205, United States.
Natasha K MartinDivision of Infectious Diseases and Global Public Health, Department of Medicine, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, 92093, United States; Population Health Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 1QU, United Kingdom.
San Diego State University · USUniversity of California San Diego · USJohns Hopkins University · USNortheastern University · USUniversity of Bristol · GB

Funding

UC San Diego Clinical and Translational Research InstituteUL1TR001442 · NCATS · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO · PI FIRESTEIN, GARY S, HOGARTH, MICHAEL · 2015 to 2024
$88.3M
VirologyP30AI036214 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO · PI SUSAN JANET LITTLE · 1994 to 2026
$78.4M
University of California Launching Future Leaders in Global Health Research Training ProgramD43TW009343 · FIC · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN FRANCISCO · PI CRAIG R COHEN, Sung-Jae Lee · 2017 to 2026
$14.7M
Training Program in Substance Use, HIV and Related InfectionsT32DA023356 · NIDA · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO · PI Natasha Martin, Steffanie A Strathdee · 2007 to 2026
$7.8M
Impact of Drug Policy Reform on the HIV Risk Environment among IDUs in TijuanaR37DA019829 · NIDA · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO · PI STRATHDEE, STEFFANIE A. · 2010 to 2019
$6.7M
Police Training to Reduce Occupational Needlesticks and HIV among Substance UsersR01DA039073 · NIDA · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO · PI BELETSKY, LEO, STRATHDEE, STEFFANIE A. · 2015 to 2019
$3.2M
Epidemiology of HIV and Hepatitis C Among Injecting Drug Users in TijuanaR01DA019829 · NIDA · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO · PI STRATHDEE, STEFFANIE A. · 2005 to 2009
$2.9M
Real-time prediction of emerging drug use epidemics in the United StatesDP2DA049295 · NIDA · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO · PI BORQUEZ, ANNICK · 2019 to 2019
$2.4M
Optimizing HIV prevention portfolios targeting people who inject drugs using dynamic economic modelingR01AI147490 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO · PI MARTIN, NATASHA · 2019 to 2022
$2.3M
MODELING THE IMPACT OF A POLICE EDUCATION PROGRAM ON HIV INCIDENCE AMONG PEOPLE WHO INJECT DRUGSK01DA043421 · NIDA · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, SAN DIEGO · PI CEPEDA, JAVIER · 2017 to 2021
$941k
FIC NIH HHS D43 TW009343NCATS NIH HHS UL1 TR001442NIAID NIH HHS P30 AI036214NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI147490NIDA NIH HHS DP2 DA049295NIDA NIH HHS K01 DA043421NIDA NIH HHS R01 DA019829NIDA NIH HHS R01 DA039073NIDA NIH HHS R37 DA019829NIDA NIH HHS T32 DA023356
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundIncarceration is associated with increased risk of hepatitis C virus (HCV) among people who inject drugs (PWID). Mexico's previous attempt in implementing a public health-oriented drug law reform resulted in minimal impact on incarceration among PWID. However, implementation of reforms alongside Mexico's HCV elimination program has the potential to reshape the HCV epidemic among PWID in the next decade. We use data from a cohort of PWID in Tijuana, Mexico, to inform epidemic modeling to assess the contribution of incarceration and fully implemented drug reform on HCV transmission and elimination among PWID.

methodsWe developed a dynamic, deterministic model of incarceration, HCV transmission and disease progression among PWID. The model was calibrated to data from Tijuana, Mexico, with 90% HCV seroprevalence among 10,000 PWID. We estimated the 10-year population attributable fraction (PAF) of incarceration to HCV incidence among PWID and simulated, from 2022, the potential impact of the following scenarios: 1) decriminalization (80% reduction in incarceration rates); 2) fully implemented drug law reform (decriminalization and diversion to opiate agonist therapy [OAT]); 3) fully implemented drug law reform with HCV treatment (direct-acting antivirals [DAA]). We also assessed the number DAA needed to reach the 80% incidence reduction target by 2030 under these scenarios.

resultsProjections suggest a PAF of incarceration to HCV incidence of 5.4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI]:0.6-11.9%) among PWID in Tijuana between 2022-2032. Fully implemented drug reforms could reduce HCV incidence rate by 10.6% (95%UI:3.1-19.2%) across 10 years and reduce the number of DAA required to achieve Mexico's HCV incidence reduction goal by 14.3% (95%UI:5.3-17.1%).

conclusionsAmong PWID in Tijuana, Mexico, incarceration remains an important contributor to HCV transmission. Full implementation of public health-oriented drug law reform could play an important role in reducing HCV incidence and improve the feasibility of reaching the HCV incidence elimination target by 2030.

Indexed as

Hepatitis CHepatitis C, ChronicSubstance Abuse, IntravenousAntiviral AgentsHepacivirusHumansLegislation, DrugPublic HealthSeroepidemiologic StudiesAntiviral AgentsDrug law reformEpidemic modellingHCVIncarcerationPWID

Identifiers

PMID36242829
PMCPMC9841890
OpenAlexW4304820449

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.