ArticleThe Lancet. Global health2022
Prediction of upcoming global infection burden of influenza seasons after relaxation of public health and social measures during the COVID-19 pandemic: a modelling study.
Article in The Lancet. Global health, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 65 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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65 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 111 citations in OpenAlex.
- Monitoring School Absenteeism for Influenza-Like Illness Surveillance: Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2023Pooled it
- Collateral Impact of Public Health and Social Measures on Respiratory Virus Activity during the COVID-19 Pandemic 2020-2021.Viruses · 2022Pooled it
- Emergence of the novel PA-D27G mutation conferring reduced baloxavir susceptibility in influenza A viruses circulating in China, 2018-2025.Emerging microbes & infections · 2026Article
- Review
- Respiratory Syncytial Virus Suppression through Public Health and Social Measures, Hong Kong, China, 2020-2023.Emerging infectious diseases · 2026Article
- The roles of pre-season immunity, age, viral shedding, and community exposures in shaping influenza household transmission dynamics.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Resurgence of Influenza Following the Lifting of Non-pharmaceutical Interventions in Shenzhen, China.Journal of epidemiology · 2026Article
- Article
- Post-COVID-19 Burden of Severe Influenza in England Among Overall Population and High-Risk Groups: Results From the INFORM Study, 2022-2023.Infectious diseases and therapy · 2026Article
- Seasonal patterns in nine notifiable communicable diseases and the epidemic dynamics of COVID-19 at Johns Hopkins Aramco Healthcare: a six-year review (2019-2024).Journal of medicine and life · 2026Article
- Shifting seasonal patterns of influenza before, during, and after the COVID-19 pandemic in Shanghai, China: A population-based surveillance study, 2015-2023.Biosafety and health · 2026Article
- Correlates of COVID-19 Vaccine Regret in the United States.Journal of general internal medicine · 2026Article
- How Has the COVID-19 Pandemic Affected the Influenza Seasonality Patterns in Different Climate Regions?-A Time-Series Analysis.Health science reports · 2026Article
- Effectiveness of "naturalness" value-based narrative intervention on vaccination acceptance in two randomized controlled trials.NPJ vaccines · 2026Article
- Changes in seasonal influenza vaccination uptake among older adults during and after the COVID-19 pandemic: Repeated random telephone surveys.Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2025Article
- Vaccine effectiveness against influenza B/Victoria-associated medically attended influenza-like illness: Beijing, China, 2021-2022 influenza season.Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2025Article
- Interactive effects of meteorological factors and ambient air pollutants on influenza incidences 2019-2022 in Huaian, China.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2025Article
- Unique immune and other responses of human nasal epithelial cells infected with H5N1 avian influenza virus compared to seasonal human influenza A and B viruses.Emerging microbes & infections · 2025Article
- Simultaneous Detection and Differentiation of SARS-CoV-2, Influenza A/B, and Respiratory Syncytial Viruses in Respiratory Specimens Using the VitaSIRODiagnostics (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025Article
- Changing Epidemiological Pattern and Higher Disease Burden of Influenza in China, 2022 to 2025.Influenza and other respiratory viruses · 2025Article
5 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.
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Authors and funding
14 authors at 4 institutions in 4 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundThe transmission dynamics of influenza were affected by public health and social measures (PHSMs) implemented globally since early 2020 to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic. We aimed to assess the effect of COVID-19 PHSMs on the transmissibility of influenza viruses and to predict upcoming influenza epidemics.
methodsFor this modelling study, we used surveillance data on influenza virus activity for 11 different locations and countries in 2017-22. We implemented a data-driven mechanistic predictive modelling framework to predict future influenza seasons on the basis of pre-COVID-19 dynamics and the effect of PHSMs during the COVID-19 pandemic. We simulated the potential excess burden of upcoming influenza epidemics in terms of fold rise in peak magnitude and epidemic size compared with pre-COVID-19 levels. We also examined how a proactive influenza vaccination programme could mitigate this effect.
findingsWe estimated that COVID-19 PHSMs reduced influenza transmissibility by a maximum of 17·3% (95% CI 13·3-21·4) to 40·6% (35·2-45·9) and attack rate by 5·1% (1·5-7·2) to 24·8% (20·8-27·5) in the 2019-20 influenza season. We estimated a 10-60% increase in the population susceptibility for influenza, which might lead to a maximum of 1-5-fold rise in peak magnitude and 1-4-fold rise in epidemic size for the upcoming 2022-23 influenza season across locations, with a significantly higher fold rise in Singapore and Taiwan. The infection burden could be mitigated by additional proactive one-off influenza vaccination programmes.
interpretationOur results suggest the potential for substantial increases in infection burden in upcoming influenza seasons across the globe. Strengthening influenza vaccination programmes is the best preventive measure to reduce the effect of influenza virus infections in the community.
fundingHealth and Medical Research Fund, Hong Kong.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.