Evidence map›Paper›PMID 36224558›Full record

ArticleWorld journal of surgical oncology2022

Development and validation of an extended Cox prognostic model for patients with ER/PR+ and HER2- breast cancer: a retrospective cohort study.

Yiqun Xie, Xizhou Li, Ying Wu, Wenting Cui, Yang Liu

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Article in World journal of surgical oncology, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

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3 · Its place in the literature

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1 citing paper in PubMed.

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5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

Yiqun Xie *Department of Breast Surgery, Huangpu Branch of Shanghai Ninth People's Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, 200011, China. xieyiqun@aliyun.com.
Xizhou Li *Department of General Surgery, Changhai Hospital, Naval Medical University (Second Military Medical University), Shanghai, 200433, China.
Ying Wu *Department of Breast Surgery, Huangpu Branch of Shanghai Ninth People's Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, 200011, China.
Wenting CuiDepartment of Breast Surgery, Huangpu Branch of Shanghai Ninth People's Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, 200011, China.
Yang LiuSchool of Statistics, East China Normal University, Shanghai, 200062, China.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundThe purpose of this study was to explore a new estrogen receptor (ER) and/or progesterone receptor (PR)+ and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)- breast cancer prognostic model, called the extended Cox prognostic model, for determining the cutoff values for multiple continuous prognostic factors and their interaction via the new model concept and variable selection method.

methodsA total of 335 patients with ER/PR+ and HER2- breast cancer were enrolled for the final analysis. The primary endpoint was breast cancer-specific mortality (BCSM). Prognostic factors (histological grade, histological type, stage, T, N, lymphovascular invasion (LVI), P53, Ki67, ER, PR, and age) were included in this study. The four continuous variables (Ki67, ER, PR, and age) were partitioned into a series of binary variables that were fitted in the multivariate Cox analysis. A smoothly clipped absolute deviation (SCAD) variable selection method was used. Model performance was expressed in discrimination and calibration.

resultsWe developed an extended Cox model with a time threshold of 164-week (more than 3 years) postoperation and developed a user-friendly nomogram based on our extended Cox model to facilitate clinical application. We found that the cutoff values for PR, Ki67, and age were 20%, 60%, and 41-55 years, respectively. There was an interaction between age and PR for patients aged ≥ 41 years and PR ≥ 20% at 164-week postoperation: the older the patients with ER/PR+, HER2-, and PR ≥ 20% were, the lower the survival and more likely to recur and metastasize exceeding 164 weeks (more than 3 years) after surgery.

conclusionsOur study offers guidance on the prognosis of patients with ER/PR+ and HER2- breast cancer in China. The new concept can inform modeling and the determination of cutoff values of prognostic factors in the future.

Indexed as

Breast NeoplasmsReceptors, ProgesteroneBiomarkers, TumorErb-b2 Receptor Tyrosine KinasesFemaleHumansKi-67 AntigenNeoplasm Recurrence, LocalPrognosisProportional Hazards ModelsReceptors, EstrogenRetrospective StudiesTumor Suppressor Protein p53Biomarkers, TumorErb-b2 Receptor Tyrosine KinasesKi-67 AntigenReceptors, EstrogenReceptors, ProgesteroneTumor Suppressor Protein p53Breast cancerClinicopathological prognostic factorEstrogen receptorHuman epidermal growth factor receptor 2Progesterone receptorPrognostic model

Identifiers

PMID36224558
PMCPMC9555115

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