ArticleThe Science of the total environment2023
A simple SEIR-V model to estimate COVID-19 prevalence and predict SARS-CoV-2 transmission using wastewater-based surveillance data.
Article in The Science of the total environment, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 24 papers.
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24 citing papers in PubMed.
- A Wastewater-based Modeling Framework for Inferring Norovirus Transmission Dynamics.Environmental science & technology · 2026Article
- Coupled epidemiological and wastewater modeling at the urban scale: A case study for Munich.iScience · 2026Article
- An integrated framework for early detection and transmissibility assessment of emerging variants in wastewater.International journal of hygiene and environmental health · 2026Article
- Integrated framework to study genomic surveillance of selective sweeps in multivariants dynamics.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026Article
- A dual-branch deep learning framework for tiered early warning of COVID-19 utilizing wastewater data.Journal of water and health · 2026Article
- SARS-CoV-2 wastewater genomic surveillance: approaches, challenges, and opportunities.Genome biology · 2026Review
- Viral Dynamic Models During COVID-19: Are We Ready for the Next Pandemic?CPT: pharmacometrics & systems pharmacology · 2025Review
- Post-recovery viral shedding shapes wastewater-based epidemiological inferences.Communications medicine · 2025Article
- Evaluation of wastewater percent positive for assessing epidemic trends - A case study of COVID-19 in Shangrao, China.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2025Article
- Epidemiological model can forecast COVID-19 outbreaks from wastewater-based surveillance in rural communities.Water research · 2025Article
- Article
- A robust web-based tool to predict viral shedding in patients with Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variants.ERJ open research · 2024Article
- Fate-and-transport modeling of SARS-CoV-2 for rural wastewater-based epidemiology application benefit.Heliyon · 2024Article
- Wastewater-based reproduction numbers and projections of COVID-19 cases in three areas in Japan, November 2021 to December 2022.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2024Article
- Population infection estimation from wastewater surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 in Nagpur, India during the second pandemic wave.PloS one · 2024Article
- Predictive power of wastewater for nowcasting infectious disease transmission: A retrospective case study of five sewershed areas in Louisville, Kentucky.Environmental research · 2024Article
- Wastewater analysis of Mpox virus in a city with low prevalence of Mpox disease: an environmental surveillance study.Lancet regional health. Americas · 2023Article
- Making waves: Integrating wastewater surveillance with dynamic modeling to track and predict viral outbreaks.Water research · 2023Article
- Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater for prevalence estimation and investigating clinical diagnostic test biases.Water research · 2023Article
- Wastewater-based modeling, reconstruction, and prediction for COVID-19 outbreaks in Hungary caused by highly immune evasive variants.Water research · 2023Article
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Abstract
Wastewater-based surveillance (WBS) has been widely used as a public health tool to monitor SARS-CoV-2 transmission. However, epidemiological inference from WBS data remains understudied and limits its application. In this study, we have established a quantitative framework to estimate COVID-19 prevalence and predict SARS-CoV-2 transmission through integrating WBS data into an SEIR-V model. We conceptually divide the individual-level viral shedding course into exposed, infectious, and recovery phases as an analogy to the compartments in a population-level SEIR model. We demonstrated that the effect of temperature on viral losses in the sewer can be straightforwardly incorporated in our framework. Using WBS data from the second wave of the pandemic (Oct 02, 2020-Jan 25, 2021) in the Greater Boston area, we showed that the SEIR-V model successfully recapitulates the temporal dynamics of viral load in wastewater and predicts the true number of cases peaked earlier and higher than the number of reported cases by 6-16 days and 8.3-10.2 folds (R = 0.93). This work showcases a simple yet effective method to bridge WBS and quantitative epidemiological modeling to estimate the prevalence and transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the sewershed, which could facilitate the application of wastewater surveillance of infectious diseases for epidemiological inference and inform public health actions.
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