Evidence map›Paper›PMID 36216416›Full record

ArticleBMJ open2022

Early-onset burdensome multimorbidity: an exploratory analysis of sentinel conditions, condition accrual sequence and duration of three long-term conditions using the 1970 British Cohort Study.

Sebastian Stannard, Emilia Holland, Sarah R Crozier, Rebecca Hoyle, Michael Boniface, Mazen Ahmed, James McMahon, William Ware, Zlatko Zlatev, Nisreen A Alwan and 1 more

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in BMJ open, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
6citing papers in PubMed
1.1field-weighted citation impact, top 23% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

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Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

6 citing papers in PubMed, 7 citations in OpenAlex.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

11 authors at 3 institutions in 1 country.

Sebastian StannardSchool of Primary Care, Population Sciences and Medical Education, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK S.J.Stannard@soton.ac.uk.ORCID 0000-0002-6139-1020
Emilia HollandSchool of Primary Care, Population Sciences and Medical Education, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK.
Sarah R CrozierMRC Lifecourse Epidemiology Centre, University of Southampton Faculty of Medicine, Southampton, UK.
Rebecca HoyleSchool of Mathematical Sciences, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK.
Michael BonifaceIT Innovation Centre, University of Southampton, Southampton, Hampshire, UK.
Mazen AhmedIT Innovation Centre, University of Southampton, Southampton, Hampshire, UK.
James McMahonApplied Research Collaboration Wessex, NIHR, Southampton, London, UK.
William WareApplied Research Collaboration Wessex, NIHR, Southampton, London, UK.
Zlatko ZlatevIT Innovation Centre, University of Southampton, Southampton, Hampshire, UK.
Nisreen A AlwanSchool of Primary Care, Population Sciences and Medical Education, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK.
Simon Ds FraserSchool of Primary Care, Population Sciences and Medical Education, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-4172-4406
University of Southampton · GBMRC Lifecourse Epidemiology Unit · GBNIHR Southampton Biomedical Research Centre · GB

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectivesThe prevalence of multiple long-term condition (LTC) multimorbidity is increasing with younger onset among socioeconomically deprived populations. Research on life course trajectories towards multimorbidity is limited and early-onset multimorbidity poorly characterised. Understanding sentinel conditions (the first LTC occurring in the life course), the sequence of LTC accrual and the permanency of the reporting of LTCs may help identify time points for prevention efforts. We used a longitudinal birth cohort to estimate the prevalence of a common three-condition early-onset multimorbidity (multiple long-term condition multimorbidity (MLTC-M)) group at midlife, describe the frequency of sentinel conditions, the sequence of LTC accrual and explore the permanency of one of these conditions: psychological distress.

setting1970 British Cohort Study (BCS70).

participants17 196 cohort members born in 1970. OUTCOME MEASURES: Prevalence of the most common three-condition multimorbidity group at age 46. The nature and timing of sentinel conditions, the sequencing patterns of subsequent LTC accrual and the permanency of the reporting of psychological distress.

resultsAt age 46 high blood pressure, psychological distress and back pain were the most common three-condition MLTC-M group, (4.3%, n=370). A subgroup of 164 (44.3%) people provided complete information on LTC across all time points. Psychological distress measured by the Malaise Index was the most common sentinel condition, occurring in 25.0% (n=41), followed by back pain (22%, n=36). At age 26, 45.1% (75/164) reported their sentinel condition. The most common sequence of LTC accrual was the co-reporting of psychological distress and back pain followed by high blood pressure. Almost one-third (30.5%, n=50) reported a variation of psychological distress across the adult life course.

conclusionIn these exploratory analyses, psychological distress and back pain were the most common sentinel conditions, and along with high blood pressure these three conditions represented the most common three-condition MLTC-M group. These analyses suggest that birth cohorts, like the BCS70, may usefully inform life course-multimorbidity research.

Indexed as

HypertensionPsychological DistressAdultCohort StudiesHumansMiddle AgedMultimorbidityPrevalenceback painepidemiologyhypertensionmental healthpublic health

Identifiers

PMID36216416
PMCPMC9557794
OpenAlexW4304083946

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.