Identification and validation of autophagy-related gene expression for predicting prognosis in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.

Background: Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a chronic, progressive, and fatal fibrotic pulmonary disease with unknow etiology. Owing to lack of reliable prognostic biomarkers and effective treatment measures, patients with IPF usually exhibit poor prognosis. The aim of this study is to establish a risk score prognostic model for predicting the prognosis of patients with IPF based on autophagy-related genes. Methods: The GSE70866 dataset was obtained from the gene expression omnibus (GEO) database. The autophagy-related genes were collected from the Molecular Signatures Database (MSigDB). Gene enrichment analysis for differentially expressed genes (DEGs) was performed to explore the function of DEGs. Univariate, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), as well as multivariate Cox regression analyses were conducted to identify a multi-gene prognostic model. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was applied to assess the prediction accuracy of the model. The expression of genes screened from the prognostic model was validated in clinical samples and human lung fibroblasts by qPCR and western blot assays. Results: Among the 514 autophagy-related genes, a total of 165 genes were identified as DEGs. These DEGs were enriched in autophagy-related processes and pathways. Based on the univariate, LASSO, and multivariate Cox regression analyses, two genes (MET and SH3BP4) were included for establishing the risk score prognostic model. According to the median value of the risk score, patients with IPF were stratified into high-risk and low-risk groups. Patients in high-risk group had shorter overall survival (OS) than low-risk group in both training and test cohorts. Multivariate regression analysis indicated that prognostic model can act as an independent prognostic indicator for IPF. ROC curve analysis confirmed the reliable predictive value of prognostic model. In the validation experiments, upregulated MET expression and downregulated SH3BP4 expression were observed in IPF lung tissues and TGF-β1-activated human lung fibroblasts, which is consistent with results from microarray data analysis. Conclusion: These findings indicated that the risk score prognostic model based on two autophagy-related genes can effectively predict the prognosis of patients with IPF.