Evidence map›Paper›PMID 36208642›Full record

ArticleThe Lancet. Planetary health2022

Effects of precipitation, heat, and drought on incidence and expansion of coccidioidomycosis in western USA: a longitudinal surveillance study.

Jennifer R Head, Gail Sondermeyer-Cooksey, Alexandra K Heaney, Alexander T Yu, Isabel Jones, Abinash Bhattachan, Simon K Campo, Robert Wagner, Whitney Mgbara, Sophie Phillips and 9 more

Open access · goldAbstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in The Lancet. Planetary health, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 55 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
55citing papers in PubMed
11.2field-weighted citation impact, top 1% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

55 citing papers in PubMed, 80 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Article
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  7. Lancet regional health. Americas · 2026
    Article
  8. Article
  9. Review
  10. Rising burden of severe pediatric coccidioidomycosis: a 25-year single-center study.Journal of the Pediatric Infectious Diseases Society · 2026
    Observational
  11. Review
  12. Article
  13. Article
  14. Review
  15. Article
  16. Article
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  18. Article
  19. Detection of AirborneEnvironmental science & technology letters · 2025
    Article
  20. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

19 authors at 3 institutions in 1 country.

Jennifer R HeadDivision of Epidemiology, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, USA; Division of Environmental Health Sciences, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, USA.
Gail Sondermeyer-CookseyInfectious Disease Branch, California Department of Public Health, Richmond, CA, USA.
Alexandra K HeaneyDivision of Environmental Health Sciences, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, USA.
Alexander T YuInfectious Disease Branch, California Department of Public Health, Richmond, CA, USA.
Isabel JonesDivision of Environmental Health Sciences, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, USA.
Abinash BhattachanDepartment of Geosciences, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX, USA.
Simon K CampoDivision of Environmental Health Sciences, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, USA.
Robert WagnerDepartment of Plant and Microbial Biology, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, USA.
Whitney MgbaraDepartment of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, USA.
Sophie PhillipsCollege of Letters and Science, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, USA.
Nicole KeeneyDivision of Environmental Health Sciences, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, USA.
John TaylorDepartment of Plant and Microbial Biology, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, USA.
Ellen EisenDivision of Environmental Health Sciences, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, USA.
Dennis P LettenmaierDepartment of Geography, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, USA.
Alan HubbardDivision of Biostatistics, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, USA.
Gregory S OkinDepartment of Geography, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, USA.
Duc J VugiaInfectious Disease Branch, California Department of Public Health, Richmond, CA, USA.
Seema JainInfectious Disease Branch, California Department of Public Health, Richmond, CA, USA.
Justin V RemaisDivision of Environmental Health Sciences, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, USA. Electronic address: jvr@berkeley.edu.
University of California, Berkeley · USCalifornia Department of Public Health · USTexas Tech University · US

Funding

Integrating Epidemiologic and Environmental Approaches to Understand and Predict Coccidioides Exposure and Coccidioidomycosis EmergenceR01AI148336 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA BERKELEY · PI REMAIS, JUSTIN V · 2020 to 2024
$4.5M
Elucidating the role of rodent hosts on the transmission dynamics of coccidioidomycosis in CaliforniaF31AI152430 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA BERKELEY · PI HEAD, JENNIFER · 2020 to 2021
$78k
NIAID NIH HHS F31 AI152430NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI148336
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundDrought is an understudied driver of infectious disease dynamics. Amidst the ongoing southwestern North American megadrought, California (USA) is having the driest multi-decadal period since 800 CE, exacerbated by anthropogenic warming. In this study, we aimed to examine the influence of drought on coccidioidomycosis, an emerging infectious disease in southwestern USA.

methodsWe analysed California census tract-level surveillance data from 2000 to 2020 using generalised additive models and distributed monthly lags on precipitation and temperature. We then developed an ensemble prediction algorithm of incident cases of coccidioidomycosis per census tract to estimate the counterfactual incidence that would have occurred in the absence of drought.

findingsBetween April 1, 2000, and March 31, 2020, there were 81 448 reported cases of coccidioidomycosis throughout California. An estimated 1467 excess cases of coccidioidomycosis were observed in California in the 2 years following the drought that occurred between 2007 and 2009, and an excess 2649 drought-attributable cases of coccidioidomycosis were observed in the 2 years following the drought that occurred between 2012 and 2015. These increased numbers of cases more than offset the declines in cases that occurred during drought. An IQR increase in summer temperatures was associated with 2·02 (95% CI 1·84-2·22) times higher incidence in the following autumn (September to November), and an IQR increase in precipitation in the winter was associated with 1·45 (1·36-1·55) times higher incidence in the autumn. The effect of winter precipitation was 36% (25-48) stronger when preceded by two dry, rather than average, winters. Incidence in arid counties was most sensitive to precipitation fluctuations, while incidence in wetter counties was most sensitive to temperature.

interpretationIn California, multi-year cycles of dry conditions followed by a wet winter increases transmission of coccidioidomycosis, especially in historically wetter areas. With anticipated increasing frequency of drought in southwestern USA, continued expansion of coccidioidomycosis, along with more intense seasons, is expected. Our results motivate the need for heightened precautions against coccidioidomycosis in seasons that follow major droughts.

fundingNational Institutes of Health.

Indexed as

CoccidioidomycosisDroughtsHot TemperatureHumansIncidenceSeasons

Identifiers

PMID36208642
PMCPMC10189771
OpenAlexW4302018471

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.