ArticleBiology methods & protocols2022
Novel deterministic epidemic model considering mass vaccination and lockdown against coronavirus disease 2019 spread in Israel: a numerical study.
Article in Biology methods & protocols, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
4 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Modelling the impact of behavioural interventions during pandemics: A systematic review.PloS one · 2025Pooled it
- Predictive models for health outcomes due to SARS-CoV-2, including the effect of vaccination: a systematic review.Systematic reviews · 2024Pooled it
- Real-time forecasting of COVID-19 spread according to protective behavior and vaccination: autoregressive integrated moving average models.BMC public health · 2023Article
- Infection spread simulation technology in a mixed state of multi variant viruses.AIMS public health · 2022Article
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Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
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Abstract
Why public health intervention by the Israeli government against coronavirus disease 2019 spread has been successful while the majority of other countries are still coping with it? To give a quantitative answer, a simple numerical epidemic model is prepared to simulate the entire trend of various infection-related variables considering the first and second vaccination campaigns against the alpha variant and simultaneous lockdown. This model is an extension of our previously published deterministic physical model, that is Apparent Time Lag Model, which aims at predicting an entire trend of variables in a single epidemic. The time series data of both vaccine dose ratio and lockdown period are employed in the model. Predictions have been compared with observed data in terms of daily new cases, isolated people, infections at large and effective reproductive number, and, further, the model is verified. Moreover, parameter survey calculations for several scenarios have clarified the synergy effects of vaccination and lockdown. In particular, the key element of Israel's success has been suggested to lie in a high-dose vaccination rate that prevents the onset of a rebound in daily new cases on the rescission of the lockdown.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.