Prediction models for brachytherapy-induced rectal toxicity in patients with locally advanced pelvic cancers: a systematic review.

Purpose: Rectal toxicity remains a major threat to quality of life of patients, who receive brachytherapy to the abdominal pelvic area. Estimating the risk of toxicity development is essential to maximize therapeutic benefit without impairing rectal function. This study aimed to abstract and evaluate studies, which have developed prediction models for rectal toxicity after brachytherapy (BT) in patients with pelvic cancers. Material and methods: To identify relevant studies since 1995, MEDLINE database was searched on August 31, 2021, using terms related to "pelvic cancers", "brachytherapy", "prediction models", and "rectal toxicity". Papers were excluded if model specifications were not reported. Risk of bias was assessed using prediction model risk of bias assessment tool. Results: Thirty models ( Conclusions: Existing models have limited clinical application due to poor quality of methodology. The following key issues should be considered in future studies: 1) Measuring patient-reported outcomes to address underestimation of true frequencies of rectal toxicity events; 2) Giving higher priority to reliable dose-volume parameters; 3) Avoiding overfitting by considering an event per candidate predictor rate ≥ 20; 4) Calculating detailed performance measures.