Predicting performance of naïve migratory animals, from many wrongs to self-correction.

Migratory orientation of many animals is inheritable, enabling inexperienced (naïve) individuals to migrate independently using a geomagnetic or celestial compass. It remains unresolved how naïve migrants reliably reach remote destinations, sometimes correcting for orientation error or displacement. To assess naïve migratory performance (successful arrival), we simulate and assess proposed compass courses for diverse airborne migratory populations, accounting for spherical-geometry effects, compass precision, cue transfers (e.g., sun to star compass), and geomagnetic variability. We formulate how time-compensated sun-compass headings partially self-correct, according to how inner-clocks are updated. For the longest-distance migrations simulated, time-compensated sun-compass courses are most robust to error, and most closely resemble known routes. For shorter-distance nocturnal migrations, geomagnetic or star-compass courses are most robust, due to not requiring nightly cue-transfers. Our predictive study provides a basis for assessment of compass-based naïve migration and mechanisms of self-correction, and supports twilight sun-compass orientation being key to many long-distance inaugural migrations.