ArticleBMC infectious diseases2022
Model-based evaluation of the impact of prophylactic vaccination applied to Ebola epidemics in Sierra Leone and Democratic Republic of Congo.
Article in BMC infectious diseases, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.
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Who cites it
4 citing papers in PubMed, 9 citations in OpenAlex.
- Safety and Immunogenicity of the Heterologous 2-Dose Ad26.ZEBOV, MVA-BN-Filo Vaccine Regimen in Health Care Providers and Frontliners of the Democratic Republic of the Congo.The Journal of infectious diseases · 2024Trial
- Access to licenced vaccines for high-threat infectious diseases: a scoping review and interpretive analysis of Ebola virus disease.BMC infectious diseases · 2026Article
- How mathematical modelling can inform outbreak response vaccination.BMC infectious diseases · 2024Review
- Modeling Supply and Demand Dynamics of Vaccines against Epidemic-Prone Pathogens: Case Study of Ebola Virus Disease.Vaccines · 2023Article
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Authors and funding
6 authors at 4 institutions in 3 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundProtection by preventive Ebola vaccines has been demonstrated in clinical trials, but a complete picture of real-world effectiveness is lacking. Our previous study modeling the impact of preventively vaccinating healthcare workers (HCW) alone or with a proportion of the general population (GP) estimated significant reductions in incidence and mortality. The model assumed 100% vaccine efficacy, which is unlikely in the real world. We enhanced this model to account for lower vaccine efficacy and to factor in reduced infectiousness and lower case fatality rate in vaccinated individuals with breakthrough infections.
methodsThe previous model was enhanced to still permit a risk, although lower, for vaccinated individuals to become infected. The enhanced model, calibrated with data from epidemics in Sierra Leone (SL) and North Kivu, Democratic Republic of the Congo, helped evaluate the impact of preventive Ebola vaccination in different scenarios based on different vaccine efficacy rates (90% and 30% reductions in infection risk in the base and conservative scenarios, respectively; additionally, both scenarios with 50% reductions in infectiousness and mortality) and vaccination coverage among HCWs (30%, 90%) and GP (0%, 5%, and 10%).
resultsThe base scenario estimated that, depending upon the proportions of vaccinated HCWs and GP, 33-85% of cases and 34-87% of deaths during the 2014 SL epidemic and 42-89% of cases and 41-89% of deaths during the 2018 North Kivu epidemic would be averted versus no vaccination. Corresponding estimates for the conservative scenario were: 23-74% of cases and 23-77% of deaths averted during the SL epidemic and 31-80% of both cases and deaths averted during the North Kivu epidemic.
conclusionsPreventive vaccination targeting HCW alone or with GP may significantly reduce the size and mortality of an EVD outbreak, even with modest efficacy and coverage. Vaccines may also confer additional benefits through reduced infectiousness and mortality in breakthrough cases.
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