Evidence map›Paper›PMID 36191948›Full record

ArticleBMJ (Clinical research ed.)2022

Waning of vaccine effectiveness against moderate and severe covid-19 among adults in the US from the VISION network: test negative, case-control study.

Jill M Ferdinands, Suchitra Rao, Brian E Dixon, Patrick K Mitchell, Malini B DeSilva, Stephanie A Irving, Ned Lewis, Karthik Natarajan, Edward Stenehjem, Shaun J Grannis and 30 more

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in BMJ (Clinical research ed.), 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 116 papers, 4 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
116citing papers in PubMed, 4 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

116 citing papers in PubMed, 4 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

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56 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

40 authors.

Jill M FerdinandsCenters for Disease Control and Prevention COVID-19 Response Team, Atlanta, GA, USA zdn5@cdc.gov.ORCID 0000-0002-4008-0653
Suchitra RaoDepartment of Pediatrics, University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus, Aurora, CO, USA.
Brian E DixonCenter for Biomedical Informatics, Regenstrief Institute, Indianapolis, IN, USA.
Patrick K MitchellWestat, Rockville, MD, USA.
Malini B DeSilvaHealthPartners Institute, Minneapolis, MN, USA.
Stephanie A IrvingCenter for Health Research, Kaiser Permanente Northwest, Portland, OR, USA.
Ned LewisKaiser Permanente Vaccine Study Center, Kaiser Permanente Northern California Division of Research, Oakland, CA, USA.
Karthik NatarajanDepartment of Biomedical Informatics, Columbia University Irving Medical Center, New York, NY, USA.
Edward StenehjemDivision of Infectious Diseases and Clinical Epidemiology, Intermountain Healthcare, Salt Lake City, UT, USA.
Shaun J GrannisCenter for Biomedical Informatics, Regenstrief Institute, Indianapolis, IN, USA.
Jungmi HanDepartment of Biomedical Informatics, Columbia University Irving Medical Center, New York, NY, USA.
Charlene McEvoyHealthPartners Institute, Minneapolis, MN, USA.
Toan C OngDepartment of Pediatrics, University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus, Aurora, CO, USA.
Allison L NalewayCenter for Health Research, Kaiser Permanente Northwest, Portland, OR, USA.
Sarah E ReeseWestat, Rockville, MD, USA.
Peter J Embi
Kristin DascombDivision of Infectious Diseases and Clinical Epidemiology, Intermountain Healthcare, Salt Lake City, UT, USA.
Nicola P KleinKaiser Permanente Vaccine Study Center, Kaiser Permanente Northern California Division of Research, Oakland, CA, USA.
Eric P GriggsCenters for Disease Control and Prevention COVID-19 Response Team, Atlanta, GA, USA.
I-Chia LiaoBaylor Scott &White Health, Temple, TX, USA.
Duck-Hye YangWestat, Rockville, MD, USA.
William F FadelCenter for Biomedical Informatics, Regenstrief Institute, Indianapolis, IN, USA.
Nancy GriselDivision of Infectious Diseases and Clinical Epidemiology, Intermountain Healthcare, Salt Lake City, UT, USA.
Kristin GoddardKaiser Permanente Vaccine Study Center, Kaiser Permanente Northern California Division of Research, Oakland, CA, USA.
Palak PatelCenters for Disease Control and Prevention COVID-19 Response Team, Atlanta, GA, USA.
Kempapura MurthyBaylor Scott &White Health, Temple, TX, USA.
Rebecca BirchWestat, Rockville, MD, USA.
Nimish R ValviCenter for Biomedical Informatics, Regenstrief Institute, Indianapolis, IN, USA.
Julie ArndorferDivision of Infectious Diseases and Clinical Epidemiology, Intermountain Healthcare, Salt Lake City, UT, USA.
Ousseny ZerboKaiser Permanente Vaccine Study Center, Kaiser Permanente Northern California Division of Research, Oakland, CA, USA.
Monica DickersonCenters for Disease Control and Prevention COVID-19 Response Team, Atlanta, GA, USA.
Chandni RaiyaniBaylor Scott &White Health, Temple, TX, USA.
Jeremiah WilliamsCenters for Disease Control and Prevention COVID-19 Response Team, Atlanta, GA, USA.
Catherine H BozioCenters for Disease Control and Prevention COVID-19 Response Team, Atlanta, GA, USA.
Lenee BlantonCenters for Disease Control and Prevention COVID-19 Response Team, Atlanta, GA, USA.
Ruth Link-GellesCenters for Disease Control and Prevention COVID-19 Response Team, Atlanta, GA, USA.
Michelle A BarronDepartment of Pediatrics, University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus, Aurora, CO, USA.
Manjusha GaglaniBaylor Scott &White Health, Temple, TX, USA.
Mark G ThompsonCenters for Disease Control and Prevention COVID-19 Response Team, Atlanta, GA, USA.
Bruce FiremanKaiser Permanente Vaccine Study Center, Kaiser Permanente Northern California Division of Research, Oakland, CA, USA.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectiveTo estimate the effectiveness of mRNA vaccines against moderate and severe covid-19 in adults by time since second, third, or fourth doses, and by age and immunocompromised status.

designTest negative case-control study.

settingHospitals, emergency departments, and urgent care clinics in 10 US states, 17 January 2021 to 12 July 2022.

participants893 461 adults (≥18 years) admitted to one of 261 hospitals or to one of 272 emergency department or 119 urgent care centers for covid-like illness tested for SARS-CoV-2.

main outcome measuresThe main outcome was waning of vaccine effectiveness with BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) or mRNA-1273 (Moderna) vaccine during the omicron and delta periods, and the period before delta was dominant using logistic regression conditioned on calendar week and geographic area while adjusting for age, race, ethnicity, local virus circulation, immunocompromised status, and likelihood of being vaccinated.

results45 903 people admitted to hospital with covid-19 (cases) were compared with 213 103 people with covid-like illness who tested negative for SARS-CoV-2 (controls), and 103 287 people admitted to emergency department or urgent care with covid-19 (cases) were compared with 531 168 people with covid-like illness who tested negative for SARS-CoV-2. In the omicron period, vaccine effectiveness against covid-19 requiring admission to hospital was 89% (95% confidence interval 88% to 90%) within two months after dose 3 but waned to 66% (63% to 68%) by four to five months. Vaccine effectiveness of three doses against emergency department or urgent care visits was 83% (82% to 84%) initially but waned to 46% (44% to 49%) by four to five months. Waning was evident in all subgroups, including young adults and individuals who were not immunocompromised; although waning was morein people who were immunocompromised. Vaccine effectiveness increased among most groups after a fourth dose in whom this booster was recommended.

conclusionsEffectiveness of mRNA vaccines against moderate and severe covid-19 waned with time after vaccination. The findings support recommendations for a booster dose after a primary series and consideration of additional booster doses.

Indexed as

COVID-19BNT162 VaccineCase-Control StudiesHumansSARS-CoV-2Vaccine EfficacyYoung AdultBNT162 Vaccine

Identifiers

PMID36191948
PMCPMC9527398

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY-NC
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.