ArticleVeterinary world2022
Analysis of peste des petits ruminants virus spread and the risk of its introduction into the territory of the Russian Federation.
Article in Veterinary world, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.
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Who cites it
3 citing papers in PubMed.
- Spatial Patterns of Global Peste Des Petits Ruminants Virus and Its Potential Risk Assessment for Various Wildlife Habitats.Ecology and evolution · 2025Article
- Diagnostic and vaccination challenges in the PPR pre-eradication era: Identifying gaps and potential unintended consequences.Journal of advanced veterinary and animal research · 2025Article
- Analysis of environmental factors influencing lumpy skin disease outbreak seasonality and assessment of its spread risk in the Saratovskaya oblast of Russia.Veterinary world · 2024Article
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Authors and funding
7 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Aim: This study examines methods to effectively control peste des petits ruminants (PPR), an emerging, highly contagious, transboundary disease that has been designated as a highly dangerous disease by the World Organization for Animal Health. Mathematical modeling was used as a predictive and preventive tool to assess the risk of PPR virus spread in the model area and the probability of its introduction into the territory of the Russian Federation. Materials and Methods: PPR risk assessment was performed by modeling the pathogen's ecological niche by performing linear regression analysis in the geographic information system ESRI ArcGIS Desktop and maximum entropy methods using MaxEnt software. The territories of Bangladesh, China, and Algeria were used as model countries because they have the highest number of confirmed PPR outbreaks, as reported by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations from 2009 to 2020. The prepared global model of the PPR pathogen's ecological niche was extrapolated onto the territory of the Far Eastern regions of the Russian Federation to assess the probability of virus introduction in that region. Results: Global model analysis showed that two factors exerted the highest influence on the spread of the PPR pathogen on a global scale: The minimum temperature of the coldest month of the year and the density of roads per unit area, which reflect the overall economic activity within a region. The highest risk of PPR spread was observed in areas with a minimum annual temperature of 16°C and road density of 5000 m/k Conclusion: According to the model, areas with a dominant subtropical climate, where small livestock breeding is performed and where the average daily air temperature is >0°C throughout the year, are at the highest risk of PPR outbreaks. The risk of PPR spreading outside these areas is significantly reduced. Local extrapolation of the PPR ecological niche model demonstrates that the probability of epizootic development does not exceed 3-4% within the territories of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation adjacent to Mongolia and China.
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