ArticleBMC public health2022
On the effectiveness of COVID-19 restrictions and lockdowns: Pan metron ariston.
Article in BMC public health, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 11 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
11 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Effectiveness of testing, contact tracing and isolation interventions among the general population on reducing transmission of SARS-CoV-2: a systematic review.Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences · 2023Pooled it
- Uncertainty and inconsistency of COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical intervention effects with multiple competitive statistical models.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Article
- The role of vaccination, testing, and public restriction policies in COVID-19 mortality and incidence: insights from Global Burden of Disease regions.Archives of medical science : AMS · 2025Article
- Factors associated with COVID-19 vaccination rates in countries with different income levels: a panel analysis.BMC public health · 2024Article
- Impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic on hospital admissions for idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis: a nationwide population-based study.BMC pulmonary medicine · 2024Article
- Real-time forecasting of COVID-19-related hospital strain in France using a non-Markovian mechanistic model.PLoS computational biology · 2024Article
- Influence of non-pharmaceutical interventions during the COVID-19 pandemic on respiratory viral infections - a prospective population-based cohort study.Frontiers in public health · 2024Article
- COVID-19 Pandemic: Did Strict Mobility Restrictions Save Lives and Healthcare Costs in Maharashtra, India?Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Article
- A prospective study of the impact of COVID-19-related restrictions on activities and mobility upon physical activity, travel behaviour and attitudes.Journal of transport & health · 2023Article
- Higher COVID-19 Vaccination Rates Are Associated with Lower COVID-19 Mortality: A Global Analysis.Vaccines · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
1 author.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundEarly evaluations of the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI) mandates were constrained by the lack of empirical data, thereby also limiting model sophistication (e.g., models did not take into account the endogeneity of key variables).
methodsObservational analysis using a behavioral four-equation structural model that accounts for the endogeneity of many variables and correlated unobservable country characteristics. The dataset includes information from 132 countries from February 15, 2020, to April 14, 2021, with data on confirmed cases and deaths, mobility, vaccination and testing rates, and NPI stringency. The main outcomes of interest are the growth rates of confirmed cases and deaths.
resultsThere were strongly decreasing returns to more stringent NPI mandates. No additional impact was found for NPI mandates beyond a Stringency Index range of 51-60 for cases and 41-50 for deaths. A nonrestrictive policy of extensive and open testing constituted 51% [27% to 76%] of the impact on pandemic dynamics of the optimal NPIs. Reductions in mobility were found to increase, not decrease, both case [Formula: see text] and death growth rates [Formula: see text]. More stringent restrictions on gatherings and international movement were found to be effective. Governments conditioned policy choices on recent pandemic dynamics, and were found to be more hesitant in de-escalating NPIs than they were in imposing them.
conclusionAt least 90% of the maximum effectiveness of NPI mandates is attainable with interventions associated with a Stringency Index in the range of 31-40, which impose minimal negative social externalities. This was significantly less than the average stringency level of implemented policies around the world during the same time period.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.