Evidence map›Paper›PMID 36182679›Full record

ArticleThe Lancet. Infectious diseases2022

Estimating the effect of the wMel release programme on the incidence of dengue and chikungunya in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: a spatiotemporal modelling study.

Gabriel Ribeiro Dos Santos, Betina Durovni, Valeria Saraceni, Thais Irene Souza Riback, Sofia B Pinto, Katherine L Anders, Luciano A Moreira, Henrik Salje

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in The Lancet. Infectious diseases, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 65 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
65citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

65 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Wolbachia-carrying Aedes mosquitoes for preventing dengue infection.The Cochrane database of systematic reviews · 2024
    Pooled it
  2. Dengue virus infection.Nature reviews. Disease primers · 2026
    Review
  3. Article
  4. Research Trends and Collaborative Patterns inInternational journal of environmental research and public health · 2026
    Article
  5. Strategies forOne health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2026
    Review
  6. Review
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Article
  10. Article
  11. The impact of large-scale release ofLancet regional health. Americas · 2026
    Article
  12. Review
  13. Horizons of the Future: Preparedness and Response.Current topics in microbiology and immunology · 2026
    Review
  14. Article
  15. Article
  16. Dengue and severe dengue.Clinical microbiology reviews · 2025
    Review
  17. Article
  18. Article
  19. Article
  20. Article

5 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

8 authors.

Gabriel Ribeiro Dos SantosPathogen Dynamics Group, Department of Genetics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
Betina DurovniCentre for Strategic Studies, Fiocruz, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil; World Mosquito Program, Fiocruz, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
Valeria SaraceniCity Health Secretariat, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
Thais Irene Souza RibackWorld Mosquito Program, Fiocruz, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
Sofia B PintoWorld Mosquito Program, Fiocruz, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
Katherine L AndersWorld Mosquito Program, Institute of Vector-Borne Disease, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
Luciano A MoreiraWorld Mosquito Program, Fiocruz, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil; Instituto Rene Rachou, Fiocruz, Belo Horizonte, Brazil.
Henrik SaljePathogen Dynamics Group, Department of Genetics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK. Electronic address: hs743@cam.ac.uk.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundIntrogression of genetic material from species of the insect bacteria Wolbachia into populations of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes has been shown in randomised and non-randomised trials to reduce the incidence of dengue; however, evidence for the real-world effectiveness of large-scale deployments of Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes for arboviral disease control in endemic settings is still scarce. A large Wolbachia (wMel strain) release programme was implemented in 2017 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. We aimed to assess the effect of this programme on the incidence of dengue and chikungunya in the city.

methods67 million wMel-infected mosquitoes were released across 28 489 locations over an area of 86·8 km

findingsOn average, 32% of mosquitoes collected from the release zones between 1 month and 29 months after the initial release tested positive for wMel. Reduced wMel introgression occurred in locations and seasonal periods in which cases of dengue and chikungunya were historically high, with a decrease to 25% of mosquitoes testing positive for wMel during months in which disease incidence was at its highest. Despite incomplete introgression, we found that the releases were associated with a 38% (95% CI 32-44) reduction in the incidence of dengue and a 10% (4-16) reduction in the incidence of chikungunya.

interpretationStable establishment of wMel in the geographically diverse, urban setting of Rio de Janeiro seems to be more complicated than has been observed elsewhere. However, even intermediate levels of wMel seem to reduce the incidence of disease caused by two arboviruses. These findings will help to guide future release programmes.

fundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the European Research Council.

Indexed as

AedesChikungunya FeverDengueDengue VirusWolbachiaAnimalsBrazilHumansIncidenceMosquito Vectors

Identifiers

PMID36182679
PMCPMC9630156

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.