ArticleAdvances in biological regulation2022
Why COVID-19 modelling of progression and prevention fails to translate to the real-world.
Article in Advances in biological regulation, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
5 citing papers in PubMed, 7 citations in OpenAlex.
- The future of pandemic modeling in support of decision making: lessons learned from COVID-19.BMC global and public health · 2025Article
- Spatio-temporal forecasting of COVID-19 cases in the Netherlands for source and contact tracing.International journal of population data science · 2025Article
- "All Models Are Wrong, Some Are Useful": George Box.Annals of the American Thoracic Society · 2024Article
- To vaccinate or to isolate? Establishing which intervention leads to measurable mortality reduction during the COVID-19 Delta wave in Poland.Frontiers in public health · 2023Article
- COVID-19 models and expectations - Learning from the pandemic.Advances in biological regulation · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
2 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Mathematical models were used widely to inform policy during the COVID pandemic. However, there is a poor understanding of their limitations and how they influence decision-making. We used systematic review search methods to find early modelling studies that determined the reproduction number and analysed its use and application to interventions and policy in the UK. Up to March 2020, we found 42 reproduction number estimates (39 based on Chinese data: R
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What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.