ArticleJournal of the International AIDS Society2022
Projection of age of individuals living with HIV and time since ART initiation in 2030: estimates for France.
Article in Journal of the International AIDS Society, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 12 papers.
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Who cites it
12 citing papers in PubMed, 18 citations in OpenAlex.
- Health-Related Quality of Life Among People Living with HIV in Vietnam, a Three-Year Longitudinal Analysis.AIDS and behavior · 2025Trial
- Trends in hospitalizations in adults with HIV infection in Spain over 25 years.Pathogens and global health · 2026Article
- HIV testing history and positivity among repeat testers and first-time testers in older adults: a descriptive study from Hejiang county, Southwest China, 2018-2025.Frontiers in public health · 2026Article
- Combined tenofovir, lamivudine, and dolutegravir treatment increases leptin and FABP4 expression in human subcutaneous adipose tissue.Einstein (Sao Paulo, Brazil) · 2026Article
- Projecting changes in demographics and causes of death in people with HIV in western Europe from 2025 to 2050: a mathematical modelling study.The lancet. HIV · 2025Article
- Distinct Defects in Marginal Zone B Cells and Filtration Function Characterize Hyposplenism in Persons With HIV-1 on Prolonged ART.Open forum infectious diseases · 2025Article
- One-Year Frailty Transitions Among Persons With HIV Aged 70 Years or Older on Antiretroviral Treatment.Open forum infectious diseases · 2024Article
- Efficacy and safety of switching to dolutegravir/lamivudine in virologically suppressed people with HIV-1 aged ≥ 50 years: week 48 pooled results from the TANGO and SALSA studies.AIDS research and therapy · 2024Article
- Longitudinal trends in causes of death among adults with HIV on antiretroviral therapy in Europe and North America from 1996 to 2020: a collaboration of cohort studies.The lancet. HIV · 2024Observational
- HIV and an Ageing Population-What Are the Medical, Psychosocial, and Palliative Care Challenges in Healthcare Provisions.Microorganisms · 2023Review
- Treatment Regimens and Care Models for Older Patients Living with HIV: Are We Doing Enough?HIV/AIDS (Auckland, N.Z.) · 2023Review
- Growing older with HIV in the Treat-All Era.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2022Article
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Authors and funding
6 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
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No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
introductionThanks to antiretroviral treatment (ART), people living with HIV (PLHIV) are living longer and ageing. However, ageing involves increased risks of co-morbidities, which also depend on when PLHIV individuals started ART. To tackle the HIV age-related upcoming challenges, knowledge of the current and future age structure of the HIV population is needed. Here, we forecast the demographic profile of the adult population living with diagnosed HIV (aPLdHIV) in France until 2030, accounting for the impact of the ART initiation period on mortality.
methodsWe used national data from the French Hospital Database on HIV (ANRS CO4-FHDH) and a sample of the National Health Data System to, first, characterize the aPLdHIV in 2018 and estimate their mortality rates according to age, sex and ART initiation period. Second, we used national HIV surveillance data to define three scenarios for the numbers of newly diagnosed HIV cases over 2019-2030: 30% decrease in HIV cases (S1), status quo situation (S2) and epidemic elimination (S3). We then combined these data using a matrix model, to project the age structure of aPLdHIV and time since ART initiation.
resultsIn 2018, there was an estimated 161,125 aPLdHIV (33% women), of which 55% were aged 50 or older (50+), 22% aged 60+ and 8% aged 70+. In 2030, the aPLdHIV would grow to 195,246 for S1, 207,972 for S2 and 167,221 for S3. Whatever the scenario, in 2030, the estimated median time since ART initiation would increase and age distribution would shift towards older ages: with 65-72% aPLdHIV aged 50+, 42-48% 60+ and 17-19% 70+. This corresponds to ∼83,400 aPLdHIV (28% women) aged 60+, among which ∼69% started ART more than 20 years ago (i.e. before 2010) and ∼39% ≥30 years ago (i.e. before 2000), and to ∼33,100 aPLdHIV (27% women) aged 70+, among which ∼72% started ART ≥20 years ago and ∼43% ≥30 years ago.
conclusionsBy 2030, in France, close to 20% of the aPLdHIV will be aged 70+, of which >40% would have started ART more than 30 years ago. These estimates are essential to adapt co-morbidities screening and anticipate resource provision in the aged care sector.
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