Evidence map›Paper›PMID 36172959›Full record

ArticleInternational journal of epidemiology2022

Impact of Brazil's Bolsa Família Programme on cardiovascular and all-cause mortality: a natural experiment study using the 100 Million Brazilian Cohort.

Julia M Pescarini, Desmond Campbell, Leila D Amorim, Ila R Falcão, Andrêa J F Ferreira, Mirjam Allik, Richard J Shaw, Deborah C Malta, M Sanni Ali, Liam Smeeth and 5 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in International journal of epidemiology, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 17 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
17citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

17 citing papers in PubMed.

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  8. Noncommunicable chronic diseases and health challenges in 2050.Revista brasileira de epidemiologia = Brazilian journal of epidemiology · 2026
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

15 authors.

Julia M PescariniCentre for Data and Knowledge Integration for Health (CIDACS), Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Salvador, Brazil.ORCID 0000-0001-8711-9589
Desmond CampbellMRC/CSO Social & Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK.
Leila D AmorimDepartamento de Estatística, Instituto de Matemática e Estatística, Universidade Federal da Bahia, Salvador, Brazil.
Ila R FalcãoCentre for Data and Knowledge Integration for Health (CIDACS), Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Salvador, Brazil.
Andrêa J F FerreiraCentre for Data and Knowledge Integration for Health (CIDACS), Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Salvador, Brazil.
Mirjam AllikMRC/CSO Social & Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK.
Richard J ShawMRC/CSO Social & Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-7906-6066
Deborah C MaltaDepartamento materno infantil e saude pública, Universidade Federal de Minas gerais (UFMG), Belo Horizonte, Brazil.
M Sanni AliDepartments of Infectious Disease Epidemiology (JMP) and Epidemiology and Population Health (LS), Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
Liam SmeethDepartments of Infectious Disease Epidemiology (JMP) and Epidemiology and Population Health (LS), Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
Mauricio L BarretoCentre for Data and Knowledge Integration for Health (CIDACS), Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Salvador, Brazil.
Alastair LeylandMRC/CSO Social & Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-3741-7099
Peter CraigMRC/CSO Social & Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK.
Estela M L AquinoInstituto de Saúde Coletiva, Universidade Federal da Bahia, Salvador, Brazil.
Srinivasa Vittal KatikireddiMRC/CSO Social & Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-6593-9092

Funding

Chief Scientist Office SCAF/15/02Chief Scientist Office SPHSU17Department of Health GCRF/16/137/99Medical Research Council MC_UU_00022/2Wellcome TrustWellcome Trust 202912/B/16/Z
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundCardiovascular disease (CVD) has a disproportionate effect on mortality among the poorest people. We assessed the impact on CVD and all-cause mortality of the world's largest conditional cash transfer, Brazil's Bolsa Família Programme (BFP).

methodsWe linked administrative data from the 100 Million Brazilian Cohort with BFP receipt and national mortality data. We followed individuals who applied for BFP between 1 January 2011 and 31 December 2015, until 31 December 2015. We used marginal structural models to estimate the effect of BFP on all-age and premature (30-69 years) CVD and all-cause mortality. We conducted stratified analyses by levels of material deprivation and access to healthcare. We checked the robustness of our findings by restricting the analysis to municipalities with better mortality data and by using alternative statistical methods.

resultsWe studied 17 981 582 individuals, of whom 4 855 324 were aged 30-69 years. Three-quarters (76.2%) received BFP, with a mean follow-up post-award of 2.6 years. We detected 106 807 deaths by all causes, of which 60 893 were premature; and 23 389 CVD deaths, of which 15 292 were premature. BFP was associated with reductions in premature all-cause mortality [hazard ratio (HR) = 0.96, 95% CI = 0.94-0.98], premature CVD (HR = 0.96, 95% CI = 0.92-1.00) and all-age CVD (HR = 0.96, 95% CI = 0.93-1.00) but not all-age all-cause mortality (HR = 1.00, 95% CI = 0.98-1.02). In stratified and robustness analyses, BFP was consistently associated with mortality reductions for individuals living in the two most deprived quintiles.

conclusionsBFP appears to have a small to null effect on premature CVD and all-cause mortality in the short term; the long-term impact remains unknown.

Indexed as

Cardiovascular DiseasesPovertyBrazilHumansBolsa Família ProgrammeCardiovascular diseaseconditional cash transferFamily Health Strategymortality

Identifiers

PMID36172959
PMCPMC9749722

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.