ArticleScientific reports2022
Predicting potential global and future distributions of the African armyworm (Spodoptera exempta) using species distribution models.
Article in Scientific reports, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 6 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
6 citing papers in PubMed.
- Predicting the global distribution of Coffee Bee Hawk Moth (Cephanodes hylas L.) under climate change using MaxEnt.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Predicting the seasonal distribution of fall armyworm in North America using species distribution models.Pest management science · 2026Article
- Managing African Armyworm Outbreaks in Sub-Saharan Africa: Current Strategies and Future Directions.Insects · 2025Review
- Evaluating the establishment potential of cabbage stem flea beetle (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) and pollen beetle (Coleoptera: Nitidulidae) in canola-growing regions of North America using ensemble species distribution models.Journal of economic entomology · 2025Article
- Risk Assessment ofInsects · 2024Article
- Species distribution modelling ofHeliyon · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
- Erratum issued
Authors and funding
7 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Invasive species have historically been a problem derived from global trade and transport. To aid in the control and management of these species, species distribution models (SDMs) have been used to help predict possible areas of expansion. Our focal organism, the African Armyworm (AAW), has historically been known as an important pest species in Africa, occurring at high larval densities and causing outbreaks that can cause enormous economic damage to staple crops. The goal of this study is to map the AAW's present and potential distribution in three future scenarios for the region, and the potential global distribution if the species were to invade other territories, using 40 years of data on more than 700 larval outbreak reports from Kenya and Tanzania. The present distribution in East Africa coincides with its previously known distribution, as well as other areas of grassland and cropland, which are the host plants for this species. The different future climatic scenarios show broadly similar potential distributions in East Africa to the present day. The predicted global distribution shows areas where the AAW has already been reported, but also shows many potential areas in the Americas where, if transported, environmental conditions are suitable for AAW to thrive and where it could become an invasive species.
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Registered trials
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