ArticleBMJ open2022
Developing and validating a risk prediction model for preterm birth at Felege Hiwot Comprehensive Specialized Hospital, North-West Ethiopia: a retrospective follow-up study.
Article in BMJ open, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.
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Who cites it
4 citing papers in PubMed, 10 citations in OpenAlex.
- Identifying psychosocial predictors and developing a risk score for preterm birth among Kenyan pregnant women.BMC pregnancy and childbirth · 2025Trial
- Machine learning prediction of preterm birth in women under 35 using routine biomarkers in a retrospective cohort study.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Development and validation of a simplified risk prediction model for preterm birth: a prospective cohort study in rural Ethiopia.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Development of risk prediction models for preterm delivery in a rural setting in Ethiopia.Journal of global health · 2023Article
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Authors and funding
5 authors at 4 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
objectiveTo develop and validate a risk prediction model for the prediction of preterm birth using maternal characteristics.
designThis was a retrospective follow-up study. Data were coded and entered into EpiData, V.3.02, and were analysed using R statistical programming language V.4.0.4 for further processing and analysis. Bivariable logistic regression was used to identify the relationship between each predictor and preterm birth. Variables with p≤0.25 from the bivariable analysis were entered into a backward stepwise multivariable logistic regression model, and significant variables (p<0.05) were retained in the multivariable model. Model accuracy and goodness of fit were assessed by computing the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (discrimination) and calibration plot (calibration), respectively. SETTING AND
participantsThis retrospective study was conducted among 1260 pregnant women who did prenatal care and finally delivered at Felege Hiwot Comprehensive Specialised Hospital, Bahir Dar city, north-west Ethiopia, from 30 January 2019 to 30 January 2021.
resultsResidence, gravidity, haemoglobin <11 mg/dL, early rupture of membranes, antepartum haemorrhage and pregnancy-induced hypertension remained in the final multivariable prediction model. The area under the curve of the model was 0.816 (95% CI 0.779 to 0.856).
conclusionThis study showed the possibility of predicting preterm birth using maternal characteristics during pregnancy. Thus, use of this model could help identify pregnant women at a higher risk of having a preterm birth to be linked to a centre.
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