Geochemical variability as an indicator for large magnitude eruptions in volcanic arcs.

Caldera-forming eruptions have the potential to induce drastic socioeconomic change. However, the criteria to identify volcanoes capable of producing large magnitude eruptions in the future are not well constrained. Here we compile and analyse data, revealing that volcanoes which have produced catastrophic caldera-forming eruptions in the past, show larger ranges of erupted magma geochemistry compared to those that have not. This suggests geochemical variability is related to the size of magmatic systems. Using heat transfer simulations, we show that differences in magma flux result in a dependency between chemical diversity and magma volume that is consistent with these observations. We conclude that compositional spread should be included in the catalogue of criteria to identify volcanoes with greater probability of producing future large eruptions. Importantly, this allows to identify stratovolcanoes with caldera-like geochemical signatures, which have not yet been recognized as systems with greater likelihood of producing large magnitude eruptions.