ArticleDiabetes care2022
Rising Hemoglobin A1c in the Nondiabetic Range Predicts Progression of Type 1 Diabetes As Well As Oral Glucose Tolerance Tests.
Article in Diabetes care, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 23 papers, 4 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
23 citing papers in PubMed, 4 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 30 citations in OpenAlex.
- Impact of screening programmes for type 1 diabetes in youth: A systematic review and meta-analysis.Diabetic medicine : a journal of the British Diabetic Association · 2026Pooled it
- UK best practice recommendations for children and young people <18 years with pre-stage 3 type 1 diabetes, on behalf of the British Society for Paediatric Endocrinology and Diabetes (BSPED).Diabetic medicine : a journal of the British Diabetic Association · 2025Guideline
- Pediatric Endocrine Society Statement on Considerations for Use of Teplizumab (Tzield™) in Clinical Practice.Hormone research in paediatrics · 2025Guideline
- ISPAD Clinical Practice Consensus Guidelines 2024: Screening, Staging, and Strategies to Preserve Beta-Cell Function in Children and Adolescents with Type 1 Diabetes.Hormone research in paediatrics · 2024Guideline
- Health Care Provider Perceptions of Screening for Early-Stage Type 1 Diabetes-A Survey Study.Diabetes, obesity & metabolism · 2026Article
- Continuous glucose monitoring as a tool in early-stage type 1 diabetes.Diabetologia · 2026Review
- Co-designing a new clinical pathway to support families with children identified as having early-stage type 1 diabetes in Western Australia.Diabetologia · 2026Article
- Generalizability of Progression Risk in the TN-10 Trial to a European Population With or Without a First-Degree Relative With Type 1 Diabetes.Diabetes care · 2026Article
- Type 1 diabetes risk factors, risk prediction and presymptomatic detection: Evidence and guidance for screening.Diabetes, obesity & metabolism · 2025Review
- Type 1 diabetes prediction in autoantibody-positive individuals: performance, time and money matter.Diabetologia · 2025Article
- Development and recalibration of a multivariable type 1 diabetes prediction model for type 1 diabetes across multiple screening studies.BMC medicine · 2025Article
- Type 1 Diabetes TrialNet: Leading the Charge in Disease Prediction, Prevention, and Immunotherapeutic Mechanistic Understanding.Diabetes care · 2025Review
- From Prediction to Prevention: The Intricacies of Islet Autoantibodies in Type 1 Diabetes.Current diabetes reports · 2025Review
- The Current Landscape for Screening and Monitoring of Early-Stage Type 1 Diabetes.Journal of paediatrics and child health · 2025Review
- Repeated OGTT Versus Continuous Glucose Monitoring for Predicting Development of Stage 3 Type 1 Diabetes: A Longitudinal Analysis.Diabetes care · 2025Article
- Looking back at the TEDDY study: lessons and future directions.Nature reviews. Endocrinology · 2025Review
- Predictors of Transitions From GADA as the Initial Autoantibody to Multiple Autoantibodies of Type 1 Diabetes in Children at Risk by a Dynamic Prediction Model.Pediatric diabetes · 2025Article
- Lower Prevalence of Diabetic Ketoacidosis at Diagnosis in Research Participants Monitored for Hyperglycemia.The Journal of clinical endocrinology and metabolism · 2024Article
- Beyond Stages: Predicting Individual Time Dependent Risk for Type 1 Diabetes.The Journal of clinical endocrinology and metabolism · 2024Article
- Early Dysglycemia Is Detectable Using Continuous Glucose Monitoring in Very Young Children at Risk of Type 1 Diabetes.Diabetes care · 2024Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
14 authors at 9 institutions in 5 countries.
Funding
Abstract
objectiveBiomarkers predicting risk of type 1 diabetes (stage 3) among children with islet autoantibodies are greatly needed to prevent diabetic ketoacidosis and facilitate prevention therapies. RESEARCH DESIGN AND
methodsChildren in the prospective The Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young (TEDDY) study (n = 707) with confirmed diabetes-associated autoantibodies (GAD antibody, IA-2A, and/or insulin autoantibody) and two or more HbA1c measurements were followed to diabetes or median age 11.1 years. Once confirmed autoantibody positive, HbA1c was measured quarterly. Cox models and receiver operative characteristic curve analyses revealed the prognostic utility for risk of stage 3 on a relative HbA1c increase from the baseline visit or an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) 2-h plasma glucose (2-hPG). This HbA1c approach was then validated in the Type 1 Diabetes TrialNet Pathway to Prevention Study (TrialNet) (n = 1,190).
resultsA 10% relative HbA1c increase from baseline best marked the increased risk of stage 3 in TEDDY (74% sensitive; 88% specific). Significant predictors of risk for HbA1c change were age and HbA1c at the baseline test, genetic sex, maximum number of autoantibodies, and maximum rate of HbA1c increase by time of change. The multivariable model featuring a HbA1c ≥10% increase and these additional factors revealed increased risk of stage 3 in TEDDY (hazard ratio [HR] 12.74, 95% CI 8.7-18.6, P < 0.0001) and TrialNet (HR 5.09, 95% CI 3.3-7.9, P < 0.0001). Furthermore, the composite model using HbA1c ≥10% increase performed similarly to an OGTT 2-hPG composite model (TEDDY area under the curve [AUC] 0.88 and 0.85, respectively) and to the HbA1c model in TrialNet (AUC 0.82).
conclusionsAn increase of ≥10% in HbA1c from baseline is as informative as OGTT 2-hPG in predicting risk of stage 3 in youth with genetic risk and diabetes-associated autoantibodies.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.