Evidence map›Paper›PMID 36145549›Full record

ArticlePharmaceutics2022

Modeling the Probability of HIV Infection over Time in High-Risk Seronegative Participants Receiving Placebo in Five Randomized Double-Blind Placebo-Controlled HIV Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis Trials: A Patient-Level Pooled Analysis.

Maria Garcia-Cremades, Craig W Hendrix, Priya Jayachandran, Natasha Strydom, Leah Jarlsberg, Robert Grant, Connie L Celum, Michael Martin, Jared M Baeten, Jeanne Marrazzo and 5 more

Open access · goldAbstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Pharmaceutics, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
0.2field-weighted citation impact, top 49% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 2 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

15 authors at 6 institutions in 2 countries.

Maria Garcia-CremadesDepartment of Bioengineering and Therapeutic Sciences, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA 94143, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-3369-1210
Craig W HendrixDivision of Clinical Pharmacology, Department of Medicine, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21287, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-5696-8665
Priya JayachandranDepartment of Bioengineering and Therapeutic Sciences, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA 94143, USA.
Natasha StrydomDepartment of Bioengineering and Therapeutic Sciences, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA 94143, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-0929-0783
Leah JarlsbergDepartment of Bioengineering and Therapeutic Sciences, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA 94143, USA.
Robert GrantDepartment of Medicine, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA 94143, USA.
Connie L CelumDepartments of Global Health, Medicine, and Epidemiology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98104, USA.
Michael MartinDivision of HIV/AIDS Prevention, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for HIV/AIDS, Viral Hepatitis, STD, and TB Prevention, Atlanta, GA 30333, USA.
Jared M BaetenDepartments of Global Health, Medicine, and Epidemiology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98104, USA.
Jeanne MarrazzoDivision of Infectious Diseases, University of Alabama at Birmingham Medical Center, Birmingham, AL 35294, USA.
Peter AndersonDepartment of Pharmaceutical Sciences, University of Colorado, Denver, CO 80045, USA.
Kachit ChoopanyaBangkok Tenofovir Study Group, Bangkok 10600, Thailand.
Suphak VanichseniBangkok Tenofovir Study Group, Bangkok 10600, Thailand.
David V GliddenDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA 94143, USA.
Radojka M SavicDepartment of Bioengineering and Therapeutic Sciences, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA 94143, USA.
University of California, San Francisco · USUniversity of Washington · USCenters for Disease Control and Prevention · USJohns Hopkins University · USUniversity of Alabama at Birmingham · USUniversity of Colorado Denver · US

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation OPP1099837PhRMA Foundation Postdoctoral Fellowship in Translational Medicine and Therapeutics
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The World Health Organization recommends pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for individuals at substantial risk of HIV infection. The aim of this analysis is to quantify the individual risk of HIV infection over time, using a large database of high-risk individuals (n = 5583). We used data from placebo recipients in five phase III PrEP trials: iPrEx, conducted in men who have sex with men and transgender women; VOICE, conducted in young women at high sexual risk; Partners PrEP, conducted in HIV serodiscordant heterosexual couples; TDF2, conducted in high-risk heterosexual men and women; and BTS, conducted in persons who inject drugs. The probability of HIV infection over time was estimated using NONMEM7.4. We identified predictors of HIV risk and found a substantial difference in the risk of infection among and within trial populations, with each study including a mix of low, moderate, and high-risk individuals (p < 0.05). Persons who were female at birth were at a higher risk of HIV infection than people who were male at birth. Final models were integrated in a tool that can assess person-specific risk and simulate cumulative HIV risk over time. These models can be used to optimize future PrEP clinical trials by identifying potential participants at highest risk.

Indexed as

HIV prevention trialskey and vulnerable populationsmodelingrisk factorsrisk phenotypes

Identifiers

PMID36145549
PMCPMC9504389
OpenAlexW4293769646

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.