ArticleNutrients2022
Estimation of the Effect of Salt-Intake Reduction on Cardiovascular Mortality Decline between 1950 and 2017 in Japan: A Retrospective Simulation Study.
Article in Nutrients, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
4 citing papers in PubMed.
- Burden of lower extremity peripheral arterial disease in the Western Pacific region, 1990-2021: a comparative analysis.Annals of medicine and surgery (2012) · 2026Article
- Evaluation of public health and economic impacts of dietary salt reduction initiatives on social security expenditures for cardiovascular disease control in Japan.Hypertension research : official journal of the Japanese Society of Hypertension · 2025Review
- Burden of cardiovascular disease among the Western Pacific region and its association with human resources for health, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific · 2024Article
- Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
Abstract
In Japan, a decrease in cardiovascular mortality has coincided with reduced population salt intake since the 1950s. The purpose of this study was to quantify the effect of reduced population salt intake on the long-term trends of cardiovascular mortality. Using government statistics and epidemiological study results in people of 20-69 years old from 1950 to 2017, including the National Health and Nutrition Survey, we developed a system dynamics model of age-specific cardiovascular mortality and salt intake. We estimated the period and cohort effects on mortality and calibrated the model for the historical mortality rate. We then simulated the counterfactual scenario of no decrease in salt intake to estimate the reduction in cardiovascular deaths associated with decreased mean salt intake. Compared with the base run and calibrated to the actual data, approximately 298,000 and 118,000 excess deaths were observed in men and women, respectively, assuming no change in salt intake over the entire period. The model suggests that the decline in salt intake since the 1950s has contributed to a non-negligible reduction in cardiovascular mortality.
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Registered trials
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