Evidence map›Paper›PMID 36129974›Full record

ArticleScience advances2022

Analysis of sloppiness in model simulations: Unveiling parameter uncertainty when mathematical models are fitted to data.

Gloria M Monsalve-Bravo, Brodie A J Lawson, Christopher Drovandi, Kevin Burrage, Kevin S Brown, Christopher M Baker, Sarah A Vollert, Kerrie Mengersen, Eve McDonald-Madden, Matthew P Adams

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Science advances, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 14 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
14citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

14 citing papers in PubMed.

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  13. Sensitivity analysis of biochemical systems using bond graphs.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2023
    Article
  14. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors.

Gloria M Monsalve-BravoSchool of Earth and Environmental Sciences, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, QLD 4072, Australia.ORCID 0000-0002-6693-4899
Brodie A J LawsonCentre for Data Science, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD 4001, Australia.ORCID 0000-0003-1317-5988
Christopher DrovandiCentre for Data Science, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD 4001, Australia.ORCID 0000-0001-9222-8763
Kevin BurrageARC Centre of Excellence for Mathematical and Statistical Frontiers, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD 4001, Australia.ORCID 0000-0002-8111-1137
Kevin S BrownDepartment of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-2959-2401
Christopher M BakerSchool of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC 3010, Australia.ORCID 0000-0001-9449-3632
Sarah A VollertCentre for Data Science, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD 4001, Australia.ORCID 0000-0002-0892-0974
Kerrie MengersenCentre for Data Science, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD 4001, Australia.ORCID 0000-0001-8625-9168
Eve McDonald-MaddenSchool of Earth and Environmental Sciences, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, QLD 4072, Australia.ORCID 0000-0001-7755-2338
Matthew P AdamsSchool of Chemical Engineering, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, QLD 4072, Australia.ORCID 0000-0003-4875-0225

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

This work introduces a comprehensive approach to assess the sensitivity of model outputs to changes in parameter values, constrained by the combination of prior beliefs and data. This approach identifies stiff parameter combinations strongly affecting the quality of the model-data fit while simultaneously revealing which of these key parameter combinations are informed primarily by the data or are also substantively influenced by the priors. We focus on the very common context in complex systems where the amount and quality of data are low compared to the number of model parameters to be collectively estimated, and showcase the benefits of this technique for applications in biochemistry, ecology, and cardiac electrophysiology. We also show how stiff parameter combinations, once identified, uncover controlling mechanisms underlying the system being modeled and inform which of the model parameters need to be prioritized in future experiments for improved parameter inference from collective model-data fitting.

Identifiers

PMID36129974
PMCPMC9491719

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.