ArticleStochastic environmental research and risk assessment : research journal2023
A new approach to modeling pre-symptomatic incidence and transmission time of imported COVID-19 cases evolving with SARS-CoV-2 variants.
Article in Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment : research journal, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.
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3 citing papers in PubMed.
- Integrated Seroprevalence and Genome-Based Study of SARS-CoV-2 Viral Strains in N'Djamena: Insights Into Chad's COVID-19 Epicenter.Journal of medical virology · 2025Article
- Kinetics of Viral Shedding for Outbreak Surveillance of Emerging Infectious Diseases: Modeling Approach to SARS-CoV-2 Alpha and Omicron Infection.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2024Article
- A comparative study of compartmental models for COVID-19 transmission in Ontario, Canada.Scientific reports · 2023Article
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7 authors.
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Abstract
There is paucity of the statistical model that is specified for data on imported COVID-19 cases with the unique global information on infectious properties of SARS-CoV-2 variant different from local outbreak data used for estimating transmission and infectiousness parameters via the established epidemic models. To this end, a new approach with a four-state stochastic model was proposed to formulate these well-established infectious parameters with three new parameters, including the pre-symptomatic incidence rate, the median of pre-symptomatic transmission time (MPTT) to symptomatic state, and the incidence (proportion) of asymptomatic cases using imported COVID-19 data. We fitted the proposed stochastic model to empirical data on imported COVID-19 cases from D614G to Omicron with the corresponding calendar periods according to the classification GISAID information on the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 variant between March 2020 and Jan 2022 in Taiwan. The pre-symptomatic incidence rate was the highest for Omicron followed by Alpha, Delta, and D614G. The MPTT (in days) increased from 3.45 (first period) ~ 4.02 (second period) of D614G until 3.94-4.65 of VOC Alpha but dropped to 3.93-3.49 of Delta and 2 days (only first period) of Omicron. The proportion of asymptomatic cases increased from 29% of D-614G period to 59.2% of Omicron. Modeling data on imported cases across strains of SARS-CoV-2 not only bridges the link between the underlying natural infectious properties elucidated in the previous epidemic models and different disease phenotypes of COVID-19 but also provides precision quarantine and isolation policy for border control in the face of various emerging SRAS-CoV-2 variants globally.
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