ArticleJournal of economic dynamics & control2022
Forecasting the propagation of pandemic shocks with a dynamic input-output model.
Article in Journal of economic dynamics & control, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 13 papers.
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13 citing papers in PubMed.
- Evolution and determinants of firm-level systemic risk in local production networks.PNAS nexus · 2026Article
- Mapping Vulnerability: Structure, Cascades, and Resilience in the Global Railway Vans Trade Network.Entropy (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Article
- Supply chain network rewiring dynamics at the firm level.PNAS nexus · 2026Article
- Systemic risk mitigation in supply chains through network rewiring.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Systemic impacts of disruptions at maritime chokepoints.Nature communications · 2025Article
- Improving policy design and epidemic response using integrated models of economic choice and disease dynamics with behavioral feedback.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- Synergistic small worlds that drive technological sophistication.PNAS nexus · 2025Article
- Estimating the loss of economic predictability from aggregating firm-level production networks.PNAS nexus · 2024Article
- The unequal effects of the health-economy trade-off during the COVID-19 pandemic.Nature human behaviour · 2024Article
- Socio-economic pandemic modelling: case of Spain.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- A modelling study to explore the effects of regional socio-economics on the spreading of epidemics.Journal of computational social science · 2024Article
- The economic impact of COVID-19 on the creative industries: a sub-regional input-output approach.Letters in spatial and resource sciences · 2023Article
- The optimality of age-based lockdown policies.Journal of policy modelingArticle
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5 authors.
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Abstract
We introduce a dynamic disequilibrium input-output model that was used to forecast the economics of the COVID-19 pandemic. This model was designed to understand the upstream and downstream propagation of the industry-specific demand and supply shocks caused by COVID-19, which were exceptional in their severity, suddenness and heterogeneity across industries. The model, which was inspired in part by previous work on the response to natural disasters, includes the introduction of a new functional form for production functions, which allowed us to create bespoke production functions for each industry based on a survey of industry analysts. We also introduced new elements for modeling inventories, consumption and labor. The resulting model made accurate real-time forecasts for the decline of sectoral and aggregate economic activity in the United Kingdom in the second quarter of 2020. We examine some of the theoretical implications of our model and find that the choice of production functions and inventory levels plays a key role in the propagation of pandemic shocks. Our work demonstrates that an out of equilibrium model calibrated against national accounting data can serve as a useful real time policy evaluation and forecasting tool.
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