Evidence map›Paper›PMID 36117442›Full record

ArticleClinical and molecular hepatology2022

Forecasted 2040 global prevalence of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease using hierarchical bayesian approach.

Michael H Le, Yee Hui Yeo, Biyao Zou, Scott Barnet, Linda Henry, Ramsey Cheung, Mindie H Nguyen

Registry-linked trialOpen access · goldAbstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Clinical and molecular hepatology, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to trial NCT06180928 (Short Term Outcome of Metabolic Associated Fatty Liver Disease), which is not on this map. Cited by 195 papers, 7 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
195citing papers in PubMed, 7 pooled it
38.6field-weighted citation impact, top 1% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

NCT06180928 unknown statusnot on this mapstarted 2024, after this paper: background citation

Short Term Outcome of Metabolic Associated Fatty Liver Disease (MAFLD) in Patients Undergoing Bariatric Surgery

TypeobservationalSponsorAssiut UniversityRan2024 to 2025Enrolled50ConditionsMetabolic Associated Fatty Liver Disease, Bariatric Surgery Candidate
3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

195 citing papers in PubMed, 7 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 271 citations in OpenAlex.

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135 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors at 3 institutions in 1 country.

Michael H LeDivision of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Stanford University Medical Center, Palo Alto, CA, USA.
Yee Hui YeoDivision of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Stanford University Medical Center, Palo Alto, CA, USA.
Biyao ZouDivision of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Stanford University Medical Center, Palo Alto, CA, USA.
Scott BarnetDivision of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Stanford University Medical Center, Palo Alto, CA, USA.
Linda HenryDivision of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Stanford University Medical Center, Palo Alto, CA, USA.
Ramsey CheungDivision of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Stanford University Medical Center, Palo Alto, CA, USA.
Mindie H NguyenDivision of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Stanford University Medical Center, Palo Alto, CA, USA.
Stanford Medicine · USCedars-Sinai Medical Center · USUniversity of Vermont · US

Funding

B.K. Kee FoundationCurveBioEnantaExact SciencesGilead FoundationGlycotestHelio HealthNCI NIH HHSPfizerSiemens HealthineersVir Biotech
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

BACKGROUND/

aimsDue to increases in obesity and type 2 diabetes, the prevalence of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) has also been increasing. Current forecast models may not include non-obese NAFLD. Here, we used the Bayesian approach to forecast the prevalence of NAFLD through the year 2040.

methodsPrevalence data from 245 articles involving 2,699,627 persons were used with a hierarchical Bayesian approach to forecast the prevalence of NAFLD through 2040. Subgroup analyses were performed for age, gender, presence of metabolic syndrome, region, and smoking status. Sensitivity analysis was conducted for clinical setting and study quality.

resultsThe forecasted 2040 prevalence was 55.7%, a three-fold increase since 1990 and a 43.2% increase from the 2020 prevalence of 38.9%. The estimated average yearly increase since 2020 was 2.16%. For those aged <50 years and ≥50 years, the 2040 prevalence were not significantly different (56.7% vs. 61.5%, P=0.52). There was a significant difference in 2040 prevalence by sex (males: 60% vs. 50%) but the trend was steeper for females (annual percentage change: 2.5% vs. 1.5%, P=0.025). There was no difference in trends overtime by region (P=0.48). The increase rate was significantly higher in those without metabolic syndrome (3.8% vs. 0.84%, P=0.003) and smokers (1.4% vs. 1.1%, P=0.011). There was no difference by clinical/community setting (P=0.491) or study quality (P=0.85).

conclusionBy 2040, over half the adult population is forecasted to have NAFLD. The largest increases are expected to occur in women, smokers, and those without metabolic syndrome. Intensified efforts are needed to raise awareness of NAFLD and to determine long-term solutions addressing the driving factors of the disease.

Indexed as

Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2Metabolic SyndromeNon-alcoholic Fatty Liver DiseaseAdultBayes TheoremFemaleHumansMaleObesityPrevalenceRisk FactorsMetabolic syndromeSmokingTrendsWomen

Identifiers

PMID36117442
PMCPMC9597215
OpenAlexW4296331184

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.