ArticleBMJ open diabetes research & care2022
Development of a 5-year risk prediction model for type 2 diabetes in individuals with incident HbA1c-defined pre-diabetes in Denmark.
Article in BMJ open diabetes research & care, 2022. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 13 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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13 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 13 citations in OpenAlex.
- A dual domain systematic review and meta-analysis of risk tool accuracy to predict cardiovascular morbidity in prehypertension and diabetic morbidity in prediabetes.Frontiers in endocrinology · 2025Pooled it
- Diabetes and cancer: glucose control impact on survival and tumor outcomes.Reviews in endocrine & metabolic disorders · 2026Review
- Real-world predictors of progression to type 2 diabetes among adults with prediabetes.Diabetes, obesity & metabolism · 2026Article
- A retrospective cohort study identifies differential diabetes progression among Han, Dai, and Yi groups in Yunnan.iScience · 2026Article
- Risk stratification at prediabetes onset and association with diabetes outcomes using EHR data.npj metabolic health and disease · 2025Article
- Performance of diabetes risk prediction models: a systematic review and meta-analysis.Endocrine connections · 2025Article
- Stroke severity and other predictors of venous thromboembolism in stroke patients-a population-based cohort study.Research and practice in thrombosis and haemostasis · 2025Article
- Development of 3-Year Risk Prediction Model for Type 2 Diabetes in Older Adults with Prediabetes - China, 2019-2022.China CDC weekly · 2025Article
- AIP, fatty liver, and HbA1c as modifiers of the C-index and diabetes risk relationship.Lipids in health and disease · 2025Article
- Distinct Roles of Common Genetic Variants and Their Contributions to Diabetes: MODY and Uncontrolled T2DM.Biomolecules · 2025Review
- Machine Learning Models Integrating Dietary Indicators Improve the Prediction of Progression from Prediabetes to Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus.Nutrients · 2025Article
- Risk Prediction of high blood glucose among women (15-49 years) and men (15-54 years) in India: An analysis from National Family Health Survey-5 (2019-21).Journal of family medicine and primary care · 2024Article
- Nomogram model and risk score to predict 5-year risk of progression from prediabetes to diabetes in Chinese adults: Development and validation of a novel model.Diabetes, obesity & metabolism · 2023Article
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5 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.
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No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
introductionPre-diabetes increases the risk of type 2 diabetes, but data are sparse on predictors in a population-based clinical setting. We aimed to develop and validate prediction models for 5-year risks of progressing to type 2 diabetes among individuals with incident HbA1c-defined pre-diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND
methodsIn this population-based cohort study, we used data from the Danish National Health Survey (DNHS; n=486 495), linked to healthcare registries and nationwide laboratory data in 2012-2018. We included individuals with a first HbA1c value of 42-47 mmol/mol (6.0%-6.4%), without prior indications of diabetes. To estimate individual 5-year cumulative incidences of type 2 diabetes (HbA1c ≥48 mmol/mol (6.5%)), Fine-Gray survival models were fitted in random 80% development samples and validated in 20% validation samples. Potential predictors were HbA1c, demographics, prescriptions, comorbidities, socioeconomic factors, and self-rated lifestyle.
resultsAmong 335 297 (68.9%) participants in DNHS with HbA1c measurements, 26 007 had pre-diabetes and were included in the study. Median HbA1c was 43.0 mmol/mol (IQR 42.0-44.0 mmol/mol, 6.1% (IQR 6.0%-6.2%)), median age was 69.6 years (IQR 61.0-77.1 years), and 51.9% were women. During a median follow-up of 2.7 years, 11.8% progressed to type 2 diabetes and 10.1% died. The final prediction model included HbA1c, age, sex, body mass index (BMI), any antihypertensive drug use, pancreatic disease, cancer, self-reported diet, doctor's advice to lose weight or change dietary habits, having someone to talk to, and self-rated health. In the validation sample, the 5-year area under the curve was 72.7 (95% CI 71.2 to 74.3), and the model was well calibrated.
conclusionsIn addition to well-known pre-diabetes predictors such as age, sex, and BMI, we found that measures of self-rated lifestyle, health, and social support are important and modifiable predictors for diabetes. Our model had an acceptable discriminative ability and was well calibrated.
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