Evidence map›Paper›PMID 36112849›Full record

ArticleMedical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making2023

A Tutorial on Time-Dependent Cohort State-Transition Models in R Using a Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Example.

Fernando Alarid-Escudero, Eline Krijkamp, Eva A Enns, Alan Yang, M G Myriam Hunink, Petros Pechlivanoglou, Hawre Jalal

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making, 2023. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 24 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
24citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

24 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Trial
  3. Article
  4. A Tutorial on Discrete Event Simulation Models Using a Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Example in R.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2026
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  8. Modeling the cost-effectiveness of introducing donation after controlled circulatory death for heart transplantation in France.Transplant international : official journal of the European Society for Organ Transplantation · 2026
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  12. Article
  13. Article
  14. Cost and Cost-Effectiveness of Treating Human Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor 2-Low Metastatic Breast Cancer.Journal of clinical oncology : official journal of the American Society of Clinical Oncology · 2025
    Article
  15. Article
  16. Making Drug Approval Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty: Cumulative Evidence versus Value of Information.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2024
    Article
  17. Article
  18. Article
  19. Article
  20. An Introductory Tutorial on Cohort State-Transition Models in R Using a Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Example.Medical decision making : an international journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making · 2023
    Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors.

Fernando Alarid-EscuderoDepartment of Health Policy, School of Medicine, and Stanford Health Policy, Freeman-Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-5076-1172
Eline KrijkampDepartment of Epidemiology and Department of Radiology, Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.ORCID 0000-0003-3970-2205
Eva A EnnsDivision of Health Policy and Management, University of Minnesota School of Public Health, Minneapolis, MN, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-0693-7358
Alan YangThe Hospital for Sick Children, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.ORCID 0000-0002-0344-6812
M G Myriam HuninkDepartment of Epidemiology and Department of Radiology, Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
Petros PechlivanoglouThe Hospital for Sick Children, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
Hawre JalalUniversity of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada (PP); University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada.ORCID 0000-0002-8224-6834

Funding

Comparative Modeling of Effective Policies for Colorectal Cancer ControlU01CA253913 · NCI · SLOAN-KETTERING INST CAN RESEARCH · PI RUTTER, CAROLYN M, ZAUBER, ANN GRAHAM · 2020 to 2025
$6.5M
Comparative Modeling of Colorectal Cancer: Informing Health Policies and Prioritizing Future ResearchU01CA199335 · NCI · SLOAN-KETTERING INST CAN RESEARCH · PI KUNTZ, KAREN M, LANSDORP-VOGELAAR, IRIS · 2015 to 2019
$5.5M
Comparative modeling of gastric cancer health drivers and prevention in the US and globallyU01CA265729 · NCI · COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY HEALTH SCIENCES · PI HUR, CHIN, YEH, JENNIFER M. · 2021 to 2025
$4.1M
Population Modeling of Bladder Cancer Detection and ControlU01CA265750 · NCI · BROWN UNIVERSITY · PI JALAL, HAWRE, TRIKALINOS, THOMAS · 2021 to 2025
$3.4M
Mathematical modeling and analysis of HIV care trajectories and retention in care challengesK25AI118476 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA · PI ENNS, EVA A · 2015 to 2019
$649k
Understanding the Impact of Opioid Policies on the Opioid Epidemic Using Graphical Causal Models and Causal DiscoveryK01DA048985 · NIDA · UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH AT PITTSBURGH · PI JALAL, HAWRE · 2020 to 2021
$360k
NCI NIH HHS U01 CA199335NCI NIH HHS U01 CA253913NCI NIH HHS U01 CA265729NCI NIH HHS U01 CA265750NIAID NIH HHS K25 AI118476NIDA NIH HHS K01 DA048985
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

In an introductory tutorial, we illustrated building cohort state-transition models (cSTMs) in R, where the state transition probabilities were constant over time. However, in practice, many cSTMs require transitions, rewards, or both to vary over time (time dependent). This tutorial illustrates adding 2 types of time dependence using a previously published cost-effectiveness analysis of multiple strategies as an example. The first is simulation-time dependence, which allows for the transition probabilities to vary as a function of time as measured since the start of the simulation (e.g., varying probability of death as the cohort ages). The second is state-residence time dependence, allowing for history by tracking the time spent in any particular health state using tunnel states. We use these time-dependent cSTMs to conduct cost-effectiveness and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. We also obtain various epidemiological outcomes of interest from the outputs generated from the cSTM, such as survival probability and disease prevalence, often used for model calibration and validation. We present the mathematical notation first, followed by the R code to execute the calculations. The full R code is provided in a public code repository for broader implementation.

Indexed as

Cost-Effectiveness AnalysisComputer SimulationCost-Benefit AnalysisHumansMarkov ChainsProbabilitycohort state-transition modelscost-effectiveness analysismarkov modelsR softwaretime-dependenttutorial

Identifiers

PMID36112849
PMCPMC9844995

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceTDM
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.